Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 040710
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING BY EARLY THIS MORNING...A
CLEAR SKY IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A SURFACE HIGH IN
PLACE...THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY TODAY...AS THE HIGH
MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WITH INCREASED THICKNESS VALUES AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE EVEN WARMER TODAY BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 DEGREES. AIDED BY AMPLE SUNSHINE...HIGHS WILL PEAK
IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS SW VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER 80S OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST TENNESSEE VALLEY. SOME MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE UNORGANIZED AND SHORT-LIVED...AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTING AND SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL NOT ALL THAT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. LONG TERM PERIOD STILL
RESEMBLES THAT OF A SUMMERTIME PATTER FOR THIS UP AND COMING
WORKWEEK. MAIN FEATURE CAUSING THIS SUMMER PATTERN IS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. DIURNAL CONVECTION STILL
POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. SLIGHT COVERAGE
INCREASE IN DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. INCREASE IN MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE FROM
LOW THAT APPROACHES THE COASTAL CAROLINAS DURING THIS TIME-PERIOD.
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR INLAND THE LOW COMES. GFS BRINGS IT WELL
INLAND WHILE ECMWF KEEPS IT OUT TO SEA. WILL WAIT AND SEE WHAT
FUTURE MODEL RUNS DO BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO GRIDS. UPPER
RIDGE FINALLY STARTS MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN FROM WEST. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH LOOK TO BE BEYOND THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  57  82  57 /  10   0  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  57  81  57 /  10   0  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  57  82  58 /  10   0  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              78  53  81  54 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/SR



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