Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 191159
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
659 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

SHRA WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE AT AIRPORTS THROUGH
14Z-15Z. WILL MENTION VCSH WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER 15Z AS ADDITIONAL
BUT MORE ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH VCTS AND
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 22Z AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AGAIN AND
VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY BY LATE MORNING.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING JUST
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE NNE. AS THE
MID STATE IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE THE NMM ARW AND
HRRR BREAK OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE AFTER 00Z AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. AS THE
CAPE DIES OFF A BIT AFTER SUNSET...SHEAR DOES PICK UP A BIT.
THEREFORE SEVERE COULD OCCUR WITH ISOLATED CELLS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CARRY OVER INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SINCE
LAPSE RATES ARENT TOO GREAT...PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ANY SEVERE. WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
THIS MORNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE A BIT IN AREAS
TOWARDS THE TN/KY BORDER. SPC HAS TRIMMED BACK THE SLIGHT RISK TO
REFLECT THIS AS WELL. IT APPEARS AREAS AROUND AND SOUTH OF I40 MAY
SEE THE SUN PEEK OUT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT MAY HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS THAT ARE
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED CELL SIGNATURES MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION AND SUN ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY IF THE INSTABILITY IS REALIZED BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. WITH THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAIL AGAIN MOVES BACK INTO THE SEVERE
PICTURE AS LAPSE RATES COULD IMPROVE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
ALSO PICKING UP EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH
AROUND 21Z TODAY...AND WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER/MID LEVEL SUPPORT
SOME CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GET SOME SEVERE STORMS STARTED EARLY.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MODELS DIFFER JUST A BIT ON PRECIP
TIMING. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PREFRONTAL PRECIP WILL FALL
AFTER 06Z UP TO 12Z. SOME MODELS EVEN HAVE SOME LINGERING PRECIP
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXTENDED POPS A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY TO REFLECT THIS.

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...HOWEVER ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME IMPACT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE POPS IN THE GRIDS NOW STARTING AROUND THAT
TIMEFRAME BEFORE THE MAIN FRONTAL PRECIP FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW
MOVES IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY DRY AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN WAVES...BUT
AGAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES IN LATER ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WET...WITH SUNDAY POSSIBLY BEING DRY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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