Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 071001 CCA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT THU MAY 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING MORE STABLE
AND WITH A DRYING TREND. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS THERE IS STILL SOME WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY
AND STABLE TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA WHERE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAXIMUM READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S
IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AND 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. AN
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS UPPER
RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
CANADIAN...ECMWF...DGEX...AND GFS MODELS DIVERGE FOR THE MID RANGE
FORECAST.  WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...SINCE
IT HAS BEEN VERIFYING BEST AS OF LATE FOR THE LONG RANGE. RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S MOUNTAINS.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE TOWARD THE OR/WA COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT INSTEAD OF SWINGING INLAND ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
COLD FRONT...THE GFS DIVES THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH ON MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY.  BY TUESDAY EVENING THE LOW WILL BE A FEW HUNDRED MILE OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.  THIS SOLUTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
UP WARM...AND POSSIBLY MOIST AIR TO THE AREA.  RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED...IS LOW.  WHILE OTHER
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS THAT RANGE FROM PARKING THE LOW OVER
THE OR/CA BOARDER...PROVIDING A DECENT CHANCE FOR STORMS TO AT LEAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON...TO A WESTERLY FLOW BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE...WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A DRY COLD FRONT TO THE
AREA...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WHILE GFS HAS BEEN HANDLING THE EXTENDED THE BEST AS OF LATE...IT`S
CONTINUITY FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...HAS BEEN POOR...NOW MOVING THE
LOW SOUTH BY ABOUT 650 MILES FROM YESTERDAY`S TUESDAY EVENING
SOLUTION.  IF THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION HOLDS...EXPECT VERY WARM
SPRING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...AN AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD MAKE CEILINGS
APPROACH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR TAF SITES KPDT AND KALW UNTIL 10Z.
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  44  71  44 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  67  46  72  48 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  74  43  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  71  43  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  72  40  78  42 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  72  45  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  62  31  68  33 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  63  39  69  39 /  10  10  10  10
GCD  64  38  70  39 /  10  10  10  10
DLS  74  45  80  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

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