Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 251040
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
640 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL THINGS TO WATCH THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE SPRINKLES/SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/VORT MAX THAT IS COMING OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH WITH THESE...AND JUST WENT WITH ISOLATED
SPRINKLES. ALSO HAVE SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THESE APPEAR
TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 850MB WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTH ACROSS CWA TODAY. KEPT THE IDEA OF A LULL IN SHOWERS
AFTER THE BAND OF HIGHER POPS MOVES NORTH WITH THE FRONT.

SURFACE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...OR
POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH OF CWA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
EAST. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST WHERE THIS FRONT WILL SET UP...AND
THAT WILL PLAY A FAIRLY LARGE ROLE IN THE LOCATION OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND REPETITIVE SHOWERS CHANCES. HAVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH JUST HOW THESE ORIENT THEMSELVES.
SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA BY MID AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION GETS
ORGANIZED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. DEBATED GOING WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FAR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
JUST WHERE THE BEST AXIS WILL SET UP...AND IN COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS...OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO...AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE MENTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN SW VA.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY...RESULTING IN A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. MANUALLY ADJUSTED EASTERN
SLOPES...LIKE BKW...EVEN A BIT COOLER WITH SE FLOW KEEPING THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND LIMITING INSOLATION. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH 850 AND 925
MB LOWS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A NORTH FLOW TO DEVELOP.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING POPS THE LONGEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM BKW ON SOUTH TOWARD GRUNDY AND CLINTWOOD
VCNTY OF SW VIRGINIA.

A VORT LOBE/TROF AROUND THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WRAPS
SOUTH AND PASSES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR CKB-EKN VCNTY FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS.  HAD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE COOL POOL.

PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND SOME WIND MAY LINGER MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWLAND COUNTIES...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME FROST.  TOO MARGINAL
AT THIS DISTANCE TO INCLUDE AS A HAZARD FOR THE LOWLAND COUNTIES.

THE TRENDS MADE YESTERDAY ARE STILL HOLDING FOR DRY CONDITION ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTH TODAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR WITH THESE...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. AGAIN LOOKING AT MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR WITH THIS.
HAVE IFR CIGS FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SE FLOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ







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