Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 280452
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1152 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
All regional precipitation was confined to Oklahoma and southern
Kansas today as an upper level low was gradually shifting across
the Texas Panhandle.
The center of this low is expected to track directly over the Red
River Valley, which will limit rain from affecting southern
Missouri the rest of today and into Tuesday.
Therefore, for the exception of areas along the Arkansas border,
we expect dry weather through Tuesday despite cloud cover and
For tonight, overnight lows will fall into the 40s, with highs
ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s on Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
We`re setting up for an extended period of dry weather for
the time of year. The slow moving upper low will be exiting the
area on Wednesday, while northwest flow evolves across the nations
This pattern will clean out the Gulf airmass by forcing a drier
continental airmass all the way through the Yucatan Peninsula.
Height rises will begin Thursday as a large upper level ridge of
high pressure approaches from the west. This feature will provide
fantastic weather conditions for anyone participating in outdoor
activities this weekend.
Temperatures will trend upward on a daily basis Thursday through
Monday. Readings in the 70s are expected Friday and Saturday.
There are some hints of small shortwave energy potentially setting
off convection Sunday and Monday. Both the GFS and the ECMWF have
this risk occurring in northern and central Missouri. We will
start with some low end pops up in central Missouri on Sunday, and
trend percentages upward into Monday.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015
VFR conditons are expected through the period. An upper level low
over northern Texas will make its way into northern Mississippi by
the end of the forecast period. Models bring the northern extent
of the rain right up to the MO-AR border, but do not expect it to
affect the TAF sites. Will go with sct-bkn mid and upper level
clouds through the period. Winds could be gusty...especially KSGF
and KBBG...from late morning into the afternoon on Tuesday.