Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 020917
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
417 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Surface across northwest Oklahoma early this morning, with a dryline
extending southwest across the South Plains to near Wink. This
dryline will mix quickly east into West Central Texas this morning
and probably clear the eastern counties by late afternoon, before
quickly mixing back west this evening. No real upper support, but
given CAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg across the area east of a
Brownwood to Brady to Junction line and a little convergence along
the dryline, can not rule out a stray thunderstorm ahead of the
dryline late this afternoon and perhaps again as the dryline
retreats this evening. Have mentioned an isolated storm for mainly
areas east of the aforementioned Brownwood to Brady to Junction
line.

Otherwise, gusty southwest winds behind the dryline and plenty of
sunshine will allow temperatures to climb. Most areas will see
readings at or above the 90 degree mark and may push mid 90s in a
few locations. Mild again tonight ahead of an approaching cold front
for Friday. Overnight lows in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

A strong cold Friday morning, will be moving through the I-20
corridor around daybreak and south of the I-10 corridor by 1 PM
CDT. Strong north winds of 20 to 30 mph are expected behind the
front. Dry westerly winds aloft will limit rainfall potential,
over all but easterly sections...from Brownwood to Junction
eastward. Cooler temperatures in the 40s are expected Saturday
morning with highs in the mid 60s Saturday.

Moist return flow begins Saturday night into Sunday with weak mid
level lift. Mainly showers expected Saturday night but a few
thunderstorms possible Sunday with GFS SB CAPES of 500-1000 J/KG.
Monday looks primarily dry, with a weakly capped environment.
However, with a dryline bisecting the region from Ozona to
Abilene (environment is similar to Wednesdays), can`t really rule
out isolated storms. As coverage will be sparse, will not include
in forecast at this time. Thunderstorm chances will increase
Tuesday and Wednesday along the dryline, however. CAPES will also
be increasing to 2000-3000 J/KG, so potential for severe storms
will increase. Wednesday may have the added advantage of a cold
front moving into the Big Country and possible triple point with
the dryline.


.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely for portions of West
Central Texas. Afternoon humidity values will drop below 20% for
areas west of an Abilene to San Angelo line. Wind speeds remain just
under critical speeds, but will certainly flirt with it at times.
The good news is that with recent rainfall, many areas have greened
up quite a bit. With that in mind, will hold off on any type of Red
Flag Watches/Warning and continue to mention elevated.

Cold front pushing across the area on Friday will produce even
stronger northerly winds on Friday afternoon across all of the area.
However, the cooler temperatures will lead to humidities values
above 25%.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  64  71  44  66 /   5   5  10   5  10
San Angelo  94  64  77  46  66 /   5   5  10   5  10
Junction  91  66  82  49  64 /  10  10  20   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/04




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