Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 261609
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE
ANTICIPATED TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING
IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. VISIBLE AND IR
IMAGERY SHOW EXTENSIVE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAINLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM CASA GRANDE TO TUCSON TO NOGALES. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
10 ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PIMA COUNTY...EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF GRAHAM AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY. ALL OF THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING
EAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. AS THE DAY WEARS ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. POP TRENDS IN THE GRIDS SEEM TO BE
REPRESENTATIVE...BUT WILL MONITOR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AND
WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.

AS OF 16Z (9 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 54 DEGS AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 52 DEGS. THESE
READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST HIGH
TEMPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS
DURING THE MORNING AND WILL UPDATE IF NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/18Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA AND
ISOLATED -TSRA THRU THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS
OF PINAL...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR IN AND NEAR -SHRA/-TSRA...AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY AFTER 27/00Z.

EXPECT BKN TO OVC CLOUDS THRU MIDDAY AT 5-10K FT AGL. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE TO BE WLY/NWLY AT 12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
30-40 KTS GENERALLY AFT 26/16Z. THE STRONGEST WIND IS EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SURFACE WIND
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS AT MOST LOCATIONS AFT 27/03Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10...OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY AND MUCH OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT
15-25 MPH AND A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY
EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
AS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUED TO DEPICT A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS COMING
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IN
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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