Extended Streamflow Prediction
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FGUS65 KSTR 021841
ESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH

APRIL 2, 2015

ARIZONA WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK - AS OF APRIL 1 2015:


Precipitation:

Seasonal October-March precipitation was 80 percent of average in
the Salt-Verde River Basin, 85 percent of average for the Gila Basin and
95 percent for the Little Colorado Basin. March precipitation was
85 percent of average in the Salt-Verde River Basin, 75 percent in the
Gila River Basin, and 80 percent of average in the Little Colorado Basin.

Streamflow:

March Streamflow was around 50 percent of median in the Salt-Verde,
55 percent in the Gila, and generally 45 percent in the Little Colorado.

April 1st Snow:

Basin snowpack conditions were near 0 percent of median in the
Salt-Verde River Basin, the upper Gila, and in the Little Colorado
River Basin.

Soil Moisture:

Modeled soil moisture states remain near to above average in the Gila and
Little Colorado Basins. However, soil moisture states have improved in
portions of the Salt-Verde Basins.

Climate Conditions:

El Nino climate conditions suggest chances for above average precipitation.

Forecast Summary:

The April-May forecast volumes were between 3-20 percent of median in the
Little Colorado Basin, and 12 to 47 percent of median in the Salt-Verde
Basins. In the Gila Basin, volumes were between 9 to 53 percent.


SPECIFIC SITE FORECASTS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

Afos message output for EGDD: /elmatador/home/tjc/wsup/wy15/lc/lcapr.drv
Developed:                    Apr 1 2015

LOWER Colorado
                                  Period      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
Little Colorado River
  Lyman Lk, abv, St. Johns, nr    Apr-Jun   0.45    13   0.69   0.44    3.5
Zuni River
  Black Rock Res, abv             Apr-May   0.02    20   0.06   0.01   0.10
Chevelon Ck
  Winslow, nr, Wildcat Cyn, blo   Apr-May   0.05     3   0.60   0.02   1.70
Gila River
  Gila, nr                        Apr-May    8.8    53   13.0    8.7   16.5
  Virden, nr, Blue Ck, blo        Apr-May   10.9    52   15.5   10.8     21
San Francisco River
  Glenwood, nr                    Apr-May    3.1    42    4.2    3.0    7.3
  Clifton                         Apr-May    6.4    37   13.2    6.3   17.3
Gila River
  Solomon, nr, Head Of Safford V  Apr-May   19.1    49     27   18.8     39
  San Carlos Res, Coolidge Dam,   Apr-May   1.59     9    8.2   1.31   18.4
Salt River
  Roosevelt, nr                   Apr-May     27    21     48     25    127
Tonto Ck
  Roosevelt, nr, Gun Ck, abv      Apr-May   0.68    12    3.1   0.63    5.9
Verde River
  Blo Tangle Ck, abv Horsehoe Da  Apr-May   17.0    47     25   16.6     36

MP    Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
MP%   Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
RMAX  Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
RMIN  Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.


****************************************************************************

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY:

                       MARCH`15        SEASONAL
BASIN                 % Average       % Average

  Upper Gila             75              85
  Salt                   65              75
  Verde                 105              85
  Little Colorado        80              95
  Bill Williams         125              75

***************************************************************************

SNOWPACK SUMMARY:

                      APRIL 1 2015
BASIN                  % Average

  Upper Gila               0
  San Francisco            0
  Upper Salt               0
  Verde                    0
  Little Colorado          0


***************************************************************************

OBSERVED STREAM FLOW SUMMARY:

                       MARCH`15
BASIN                  % Median

  Gila                   55
  Salt                   25
  Verde                  95
  Little Colorado        45

**************************************************************************

SPECIFIC SITE MONTHLY STREAM FLOW SUMMARY (MAR `15):
Provisional USGS Data

                                   Obs     % Med

  Gila - Gila, nr                 11.8       55
  San Fransisco - Clifton         11.5       40
  Gila - Solomon, nr              21.0       35
  Salt - Roosevelt, nr            38.0       30
  Tonto - Roosevelt, nr            6.2       25
  Verde - Horseshoe Dam, abv      94.0       95

**************************************************************************

For additional forecast information refer to the Water Supply section of
the CBRFC web page at: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cpub.php

CBRFC

NNNN

$$



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