Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 020800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

PRODUCT RELEASED EARLY FOR COMPUTER MAINTENANCE

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK PRES PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING WEST 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF W CENTRAL
FLORIDA WESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES PERSIST IN MOST AREAS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT.
THE EXCEPTION IS OFF THE NW COAST OF YUCATAN WHERE THE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT TROUGH TO DEVELOPS. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT INDICATING THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE
TEXAS COAST LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY
STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE NW GULF SAT...AND OVER THE NE GULF SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...COMPARED WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND WEAKER UKMET. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD...STALLING ALONG 26N BY LATE SAT BEFORE LIFTING N AGAIN
LATE SAT AND SUN. THE PATTERN RETURNS TO SOMETHING RESEMBLING THE
CURRENT PATTER WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ARE PULSING TO 20-25 KT OFF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL
BUILD LATE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING E ACROSS THE
WATERS NE OF THE BAHAMAS. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS OFF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE FRI. TRADE WIND FLOW DIMINISHES SAT AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE UNITED STATES. THE
BUILDING HIGH PRES BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL ALLOW STRONG NE
FLOW IN THE LEE OF CUBA EARLY SUN...AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND OFF HISPANIOLA SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. STRONG WINDS OFF
COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE MAINLY AT NIGHT. LITTLE
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT BUT USED HIGHER RESOLUTION 00 UTC GFS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. ECWAVE/TAFB NWPS BLEND USED FOR WAVES. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N
TODAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING 1029/1030 MB HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL AND BE CENTERED NEAR
35N70W BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY MODERATE TO
FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONG
WINDS NEAR THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY TONIGHT. NE
SWELL TO 8 FT GENERATED FROM STRONGER WINDS E OF THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL MOVE WEST 65W BETWEEN 23N AND 25N LATE FRI THEN
SUBSIDE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST SAT AHEAD OF ANOTHER...STRONGER
FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST EARLY SAT...REACHING FROM
31N70W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE SAT...AND FROM BERMUDA TO SE
FLORIDA BY SUNDAY. THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
INDICATING FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
00 UTC ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY. OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS
A STRONGER SOLUTION IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND UKMET CALLING FOR 20
TO 25 KT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS N OF 27N LATE
SUNDAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO MONDAY AND LEAVING MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS E OF THE
BAHAMAS BY LATE MONDAY.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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