Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 210016
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
1816 MDT Monday, April 20, 2015

This forecast is for Tuesday, April 21, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 60.3 F/15.7 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 1301 ft/min (6.6 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 19177 ft MSL (14154 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 72.0 F/22.7 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1130 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 14542 ft MSL (9519 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Wednesday 04/22.... Excellent

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:29:13 / 19:56:15 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 13 hr 27 min 2 sec (807 min 2 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:12:54 MDT... 62.83 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 04/21/2015 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 10955 ft MSL (5932 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 13893 ft MSL (8870 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 15196 ft MSL (10173 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -4.0
K index......................... +10.4

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -59.0 -74.2   280   28   15   0.8   0.5      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -57.7 -71.9   285   31   16   1.2   0.7      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -60.6 -77.1   310   24   12  -2.1  -1.1      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -60.4 -76.7   320   23   12   4.2   2.3      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -57.9 -72.2   315   24   12   4.2   2.3      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -55.2 -67.4   315   24   12   6.7   3.7      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -50.5 -58.9   310   23   12   7.0   3.8      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -46.1 -51.0   310   23   12   8.2   4.5   28.7  83.7     4.9      M    M
 29000  -43.6 -46.5   310   22   12   8.3   4.6   28.1  82.5     4.5      M    M
 28000  -41.1 -42.0   310   22   11   8.3   4.6   27.5  81.6     4.1      M    M
 27000  -38.6 -37.5   310   22   11   8.2   4.5   27.1  80.8     3.8      M    M
 26000  -36.2 -33.2   305   21   11   8.1   4.4   26.3  79.4     3.3      M    M
 25000  -33.8 -28.8   305   21   11   8.1   4.4   25.7  78.3     2.8      M    M
 24000  -31.4 -24.5   305   20   10   8.1   4.4   25.2  77.3     2.4      M    M
 23000  -28.9 -20.0   305   20   10   8.2   4.5   24.5  76.2     1.9      M    M
 22000  -26.4 -15.5   305   19   10   8.2   4.5   24.0  75.2     1.5      M    M
 21000  -24.0 -11.2   305   19   10   8.0   4.4   23.5  74.3     1.1      M    M
 20000  -21.6  -6.9   305   18    9   8.0   4.4   22.8  73.1     0.5      M    M
 19500  -20.4  -4.7   305   18    9   8.0   4.4   22.5  72.5     0.2      M    M
 19000  -19.2  -2.6   305   18    9   8.0   4.4   22.2  72.0    -0.1   1291  6.6
 18500  -18.0  -0.4   310   18    9   8.1   4.5   22.0  71.5    -0.3   1240  6.3
 18000  -16.8   1.8   310   17    9   8.2   4.5   21.7  71.0    -0.5   1188  6.0
 17500  -15.5   4.1   310   17    9   8.2   4.5   21.4  70.6    -0.8   1136  5.8
 17000  -14.3   6.3   305   17    9   7.9   4.4   21.1  70.0    -1.0   1085  5.5
 16500  -13.1   8.4   305   17    9   8.0   4.4   20.8  69.5    -1.3   1034  5.3
 16000  -12.0  10.4   305   17    9   7.4   4.1   20.5  68.9    -1.6    984  5.0
 15500  -10.9  12.4   300   17    9   7.3   4.0   20.1  68.1    -2.0    938  4.8
 15000   -9.3  15.3   290   16    8   6.9   3.8   19.4  67.0    -2.7    868  4.4
 14500   -8.3  17.1   285   15    8   7.1   3.9   19.0  66.2    -3.2    824  4.2
 14000   -7.3  18.9   280   15    8   8.5   4.7   18.7  65.6    -3.6    778  3.9
 13500   -6.0  21.2   275   14    7   8.8   4.8   18.5  65.3    -3.8    725  3.7
 13000   -4.7  23.5   270   13    7   8.7   4.8   18.3  65.0    -4.0    672  3.4
 12500   -3.4  25.9   270   12    6   8.7   4.7   18.2  64.7    -4.2    618  3.1
 12000   -2.2  28.0   270   10    5   7.9   4.3   18.0  64.3    -4.4    565  2.9
 11500   -1.1  30.0   270    8    4   7.5   4.1   17.6  63.7    -4.8    517  2.6
 11000    0.0  32.0   265    6    3   7.1   3.9   17.2  63.0    -5.2    469  2.4
 10500    1.1  34.0   260    4    2   6.2   3.4   16.8  62.2    -5.7    424  2.2
 10250    1.6  34.9   250    3    2   9.7   5.3   16.5  61.8    -5.9    401  2.0
 10000    2.4  36.3   245    3    1  10.6   5.8   16.7  62.0    -5.8    368  1.9
  9750    3.0  37.4   235    2    1   7.8   4.3   16.6  61.8    -5.9    342  1.7
  9500    3.7  38.7   225    2    1   8.5   4.7   16.5  61.6    -6.0    316  1.6
  9250    4.3  39.7   215    2    1   8.3   4.5   16.4  61.4    -6.2    290  1.5
  9000    4.9  40.8   200    2    1   7.6   4.1   16.2  61.2    -6.3    265  1.3
  8750    5.4  41.7   190    2    1   7.0   3.9   16.0  60.8    -6.5    242  1.2
  8500    5.9  42.6   180    2    1   7.2   4.0   15.8  60.5    -6.8    219  1.1
  8250    6.4  43.5   165    2    1   7.0   3.9   15.6  60.1    -7.0    196  1.0
  8000    6.9  44.4   160    3    1   6.3   3.4   15.4  59.7    -7.3    174  0.9
  7750    7.3  45.1   155    3    2   5.6   3.1   15.1  59.1    -7.6    154  0.8
  7500    7.7  45.9   155    4    2   5.5   3.0   14.8  58.6    -7.9    135  0.7
  7250    8.1  46.6   155    5    2   5.0   2.7   14.4  58.0    -8.3    116  0.6
  7000    8.5  47.3   155    6    3   3.5   1.9   14.0  57.2    -8.7     99  0.5
  6750    8.7  47.7   150    7    4   2.9   1.6   13.5  56.3    -9.3     85  0.4
  6500    8.8  47.8   150    8    4  -2.1  -1.1   12.9  55.1    -9.9     74  0.4
  6250    8.3  46.9   140    8    4  -8.3  -4.5   11.7  53.0   -11.2     81  0.4
  6000    7.6  45.7   135    8    4  -8.7  -4.8   10.3  50.5   -12.6     94  0.5
  5750    6.9  44.4   120    8    4 -10.6  -5.8    8.8  47.9   -14.1    108  0.6
  5500    5.9  42.6   105    7    4 -16.5  -9.0    7.3  45.1   -15.7    132  0.7
  5250    4.4  39.9   095    7    3 -21.2 -11.6    5.5  41.9   -17.5    169  0.9
  5000      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           04/21/2015 at 0900 MDT          |       04/21/2015 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... +5.7  LI... +274.0              | K index... +4.0  LI... +272.4
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... +40.4  CIN... -56.3
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -58.9 -74.0  280  28 15   0.4   0.2 | -59.3 -74.7  275  30 15   0.3   0.2
 45000 -58.4 -73.1  275  30 16   0.7   0.4 | -58.8 -73.8  275  35 18   0.6   0.3
 40000 -61.8 -79.2  300  18  9  -2.4  -1.3 | -62.4 -80.3  285  15  8  -2.4  -1.3
 38000 -61.2 -78.2  315  16  8   5.5   3.0 | -61.2 -78.2  295  11  6   5.9   3.3
 36000 -58.0 -72.4  320  18  9   5.4   3.0 | -57.7 -71.9  315  10  5   6.0   3.3
 34000 -54.6 -66.3  325  19 10   6.8   3.7 | -54.0 -65.2  325  11  6   6.9   3.8
 32000 -50.0 -58.0  310  21 11   6.8   3.7 | -49.9 -57.8  310  14  7   6.9   3.8
 30000 -45.7 -50.3  300  22 11   8.2   4.5 | -45.6 -50.1  300  17  9   8.0   4.4
 29000 -43.2 -45.8  295  22 11   8.3   4.5 | -43.2 -45.8  290  19 10   8.0   4.4
 28000 -40.7 -41.3  295  22 11   8.3   4.5 | -40.9 -41.6  285  20 10   8.0   4.4
 27000 -38.3 -36.9  290  22 11   8.2   4.5 | -38.5 -37.3  280  22 11   8.0   4.4
 26000 -35.8 -32.4  290  22 11   8.1   4.5 | -35.5 -31.9  280  22 11   8.1   4.4
 25000 -33.4 -28.1  290  21 11   8.1   4.5 | -33.0 -27.4  280  22 11   8.1   4.4
 24000 -30.9 -23.6  290  21 11   8.0   4.4 | -30.6 -23.1  280  22 11   7.9   4.3
 23000 -28.6 -19.5  290  21 11   7.8   4.3 | -28.3 -18.9  280  21 11   7.8   4.3
 22000 -26.2 -15.2  285  20 10   7.8   4.3 | -26.0 -14.8  280  21 11   7.8   4.3
 21000 -23.9 -11.0  285  19 10   7.9   4.3 | -23.7 -10.7  280  20 10   7.6   4.2
 20000 -21.5  -6.7  285  17  9   7.9   4.3 | -21.4  -6.5  275  19 10   7.6   4.2
 19500 -20.4  -4.7  285  17  9   7.9   4.3 | -20.3  -4.5  275  19 10   7.6   4.2
 19000 -19.2  -2.6  285  16  8   7.9   4.3 | -19.1  -2.4  275  18  9   7.6   4.2
 18500 -18.0  -0.4  285  15  8   8.0   4.4 | -18.0  -0.4  275  18  9   8.2   4.5
 18000 -16.8   1.8  290  15  8   8.1   4.5 | -16.7   1.9  275  17  9   8.4   4.6
 17500 -15.6   3.9  290  15  8   8.1   4.5 | -15.5   4.1  270  17  9   8.4   4.6
 17000 -14.3   6.3  290  15  8   8.0   4.4 | -14.2   6.4  270  16  8   8.6   4.7
 16500 -13.2   8.2  290  15  8   8.0   4.4 | -12.9   8.8  270  16  8   8.6   4.7
 16000 -12.0  10.4  290  14  7   8.1   4.5 | -11.7  10.9  270  15  8   8.2   4.5
 15500 -10.7  12.7  290  14  7   8.1   4.4 | -10.5  13.1  270  15  8   8.2   4.5
 15000  -9.0  15.8  285  14  7   6.7   3.7 |  -9.2  15.4  270  15  8   8.1   4.4
 14500  -8.0  17.6  280  13  7   6.9   3.8 |  -8.0  17.6  270  14  7   8.1   4.4
 14000  -7.0  19.4  275  13  7   7.8   4.3 |  -6.8  19.8  270  14  7   8.0   4.4
 13500  -5.8  21.6  270  14  7   7.9   4.3 |  -5.7  21.7  270  14  7   7.9   4.3
 13000  -4.6  23.7  265  14  7   8.5   4.7 |  -3.9  25.0  265  14  7   8.2   4.5
 12500  -3.4  25.9  265  14  7   8.8   4.8 |  -2.8  27.0  265  15  7   8.3   4.6
 12000  -2.1  28.2  260  14  7   8.8   4.8 |  -1.6  29.1  265  15  7   8.3   4.6
 11500  -0.9  30.4  260  12  6   8.9   4.9 |  -0.4  31.3  265  14  7   8.4   4.6
 11000   0.4  32.7  255  10  5   7.6   4.2 |   0.8  33.4  265  14  7   7.7   4.2
 10500   1.4  34.5  250   8  4   6.5   3.6 |   1.9  35.4  265  12  6   6.9   3.8
 10250   1.9  35.4  250   7  4   9.1   5.0 |   2.5  36.5  265  12  6  10.4   5.7
 10000   2.7  36.9  245   6  3   9.5   5.2 |   3.4  38.1  265  11  6  10.9   6.0
  9750   3.2  37.8  235   5  3   7.1   3.9 |   4.0  39.2  260  10  5   7.6   4.2
  9500   3.8  38.8  225   5  2   8.2   4.5 |   4.6  40.3  260   9  4   8.7   4.8
  9250   4.4  39.9  210   5  2   6.1   3.4 |   5.2  41.4  255   7  4   7.8   4.3
  9000   4.8  40.6  200   4  2   6.2   3.4 |   5.7  42.3  250   6  3   7.4   4.1
  8750   5.4  41.7  195   4  2   8.0   4.4 |   6.3  43.3  245   5  3   7.8   4.3
  8500   5.9  42.6  185   5  2   7.6   4.2 |   6.8  44.2  235   4  2   7.8   4.3
  8250   6.5  43.7  180   5  3   7.5   4.1 |   7.4  45.3  220   3  2   7.5   4.1
  8000   7.0  44.6  170   5  3   6.3   3.5 |   7.9  46.2  205   3  2   7.5   4.1
  7750   7.4  45.3  165   6  3   5.5   3.0 |   8.5  47.3  195   3  2   7.7   4.2
  7500   7.8  46.0  165   6  3   5.2   2.8 |   9.0  48.2  190   3  2   8.0   4.4
  7250   8.2  46.8  160   7  3   3.4   1.9 |   9.6  49.3  185   3  2   9.4   5.1
  7000   8.3  46.9  155   7  4   2.1   1.1 |  10.4  50.7  185   3  2  10.1   5.5
  6750   8.5  47.3  150   7  4   1.7   0.9 |  11.1  52.0  185   3  2   9.8   5.4
  6500   8.6  47.5  145   8  4   1.2   0.7 |  11.8  53.2  185   3  2  10.5   5.8
  6250   8.6  47.5  140   7  4   1.1   0.6 |  12.7  54.9  185   3  1  11.4   6.3
  6000   8.7  47.7  130   6  3   1.1   0.6 |  13.5  56.3  190   3  1  10.8   6.0
  5750   8.8  47.8  120   5  2   3.5   1.9 |  14.3  57.7  190   3  1  10.9   6.0
  5500   9.1  48.4  110   4  2   7.7   4.2 |  15.2  59.4  190   3  1  13.3   7.3
  5250   9.8  49.6  110   4  2   9.4   5.2 |  16.2  61.2  190   3  1  15.6   8.6
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           04/21/2015 at 1500 MDT          |       04/21/2015 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +8.1  LI... +272.6              | K index... +7.3  LI... +273.6
CAPE... +26.3  CIN... -59.3                | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.7
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -59.2 -74.6  280  29 15  -0.0  -0.0 | -58.7 -73.7  280  26 14   0.4   0.2
 45000 -59.2 -74.6  275  33 17   0.2   0.1 | -58.2 -72.8  275  28 14   0.7   0.4
 40000 -62.4 -80.3  270  16  8  -2.2  -1.2 | -62.7 -80.9  265  13  7  -3.0  -1.7
 38000 -61.2 -78.2  270  11  6   6.0   3.3 | -61.7 -79.1  260  10  5   6.1   3.4
 36000 -57.6 -71.7  275   9  4   6.0   3.3 | -58.0 -72.4  255   8  4   6.1   3.4
 34000 -53.8 -64.8  275   7  4   7.3   4.0 | -54.2 -65.6  255   7  4   7.5   4.1
 32000 -49.5 -57.1  270   9  5   7.3   4.0 | -49.7 -57.5  255  11  6   7.4   4.1
 30000 -45.0 -49.0  270  12  6   7.7   4.3 | -45.2 -49.4  260  15  8   8.2   4.5
 29000 -42.7 -44.9  270  15  7   7.8   4.3 | -42.7 -44.9  260  16  8   8.2   4.5
 28000 -40.4 -40.7  275  17  9   7.8   4.3 | -40.3 -40.5  265  18  9   8.2   4.5
 27000 -38.1 -36.6  275  20 10   7.7   4.2 | -37.3 -35.1  270  20 10   7.8   4.3
 26000 -35.2 -31.4  275  20 10   7.7   4.2 | -34.9 -30.8  275  19 10   7.8   4.3
 25000 -32.9 -27.2  280  20 10   7.7   4.2 | -32.6 -26.7  280  18  9   7.8   4.3
 24000 -30.6 -23.1  280  21 11   7.8   4.3 | -30.2 -22.4  285  18  9   8.0   4.4
 23000 -28.3 -18.9  280  21 11   7.8   4.3 | -27.8 -18.0  285  19 10   8.1   4.4
 22000 -25.9 -14.6  275  21 11   7.9   4.3 | -25.4 -13.7  280  20 10   8.1   4.5
 21000 -23.6 -10.5  275  22 11   7.6   4.2 | -23.0  -9.4  280  21 11   7.8   4.3
 20000 -21.3  -6.3  275  22 11   7.6   4.2 | -20.7  -5.3  285  20 10   7.8   4.3
 19500 -20.2  -4.4  275  22 11   7.6   4.2 | -19.5  -3.1  285  20 10   7.8   4.3
 19000 -19.1  -2.4  270  22 11   7.6   4.2 | -18.4  -1.1  285  20 10   7.8   4.3
 18500 -17.9  -0.2  270  22 11   8.4   4.6 | -17.2   1.0  290  19 10   8.3   4.6
 18000 -16.6   2.1  275  22 11   8.5   4.7 | -15.9   3.4  290  19 10   8.4   4.6
 17500 -15.4   4.3  275  21 11   8.6   4.7 | -14.7   5.5  285  18  9   8.6   4.7
 17000 -14.1   6.6  275  21 11   9.0   4.9 | -13.3   8.1  285  17  9   9.1   5.0
 16500 -12.7   9.1  275  20 11   9.0   4.9 | -12.0  10.4  285  17  9   9.0   5.0
 16000 -11.4  11.5  275  20 10   9.0   4.9 | -10.6  12.9  280  16  8   9.1   5.0
 15500 -10.1  13.8  275  19 10   9.0   4.9 |  -9.3  15.3  280  16  8   9.1   5.0
 15000  -8.7  16.3  275  19 10   8.7   4.8 |  -8.0  17.6  275  15  8   8.9   4.9
 14500  -7.5  18.5  275  18  9   8.6   4.7 |  -6.6  20.1  275  15  8   8.9   4.9
 14000  -6.2  20.8  270  18  9   8.8   4.8 |  -5.3  22.5  275  15  8   8.9   4.9
 13500  -4.9  23.2  275  17  9   9.1   5.0 |  -4.0  24.8  275  14  7   9.1   5.0
 13000  -2.9  26.8  275  17  9   8.8   4.8 |  -2.0  28.4  275  14  7   8.9   4.9
 12500  -1.5  29.3  275  16  8   8.8   4.8 |  -0.6  30.9  275  13  7   8.9   4.9
 12000  -0.2  31.6  275  15  8   9.0   4.9 |   0.7  33.3  275  13  7   8.9   4.9
 11500   1.1  34.0  270  15  8   9.1   5.0 |   2.0  35.6  275  12  6   8.9   4.9
 11000   2.4  36.3  270  14  7   7.9   4.3 |   3.3  37.9  280  12  6   8.0   4.4
 10500   3.5  38.3  270  13  7   7.2   4.0 |   4.4  39.9  280  11  6   7.5   4.1
 10250   4.1  39.4  270  13  7   9.9   5.4 |   5.0  41.0  280  11  6  10.1   5.5
 10000   4.9  40.8  270  13  6   9.7   5.3 |   5.8  42.4  280  11  6  10.1   5.5
  9750   5.5  41.9  270  12  6   7.1   3.9 |   6.5  43.7  280  11  6   8.0   4.4
  9500   6.0  42.8  270  11  5   8.0   4.4 |   7.1  44.8  285  10  5   8.5   4.7
  9250   6.6  43.9  270  10  5   7.1   3.9 |   7.7  45.9  285  10  5   8.5   4.7
  9000   7.1  44.8  270   9  4   6.7   3.7 |   8.3  46.9  285  10  5   8.3   4.5
  8750   7.6  45.7  270   8  4   7.5   4.1 |   8.9  48.0  285   9  5   7.9   4.3
  8500   8.1  46.6  270   7  3   6.6   3.6 |   9.5  49.1  285   8  4   8.1   4.4
  8250   8.6  47.5  270   6  3   9.5   5.2 |  10.1  50.2  285   7  4   7.7   4.2
  8000   9.4  48.9  270   6  3  10.8   5.9 |  10.6  51.1  285   6  3   7.1   3.9
  7750  10.0  50.0  270   5  3   9.0   4.9 |  11.1  52.0  280   5  3   7.1   3.9
  7500  10.7  51.3  270   5  3   9.6   5.3 |  11.6  52.9  280   4  2   6.8   3.7
  7250  11.5  52.7  270   5  3  10.4   5.7 |  12.1  53.8  275   3  2   9.5   5.2
  7000  12.3  54.1  270   5  3  10.7   5.9 |  12.9  55.2  270   3  2  11.1   6.1
  6750  13.0  55.4  270   5  3   9.8   5.4 |  13.7  56.7  270   3  2   9.4   5.2
  6500  13.8  56.8  265   5  3  10.3   5.7 |  14.4  57.9  265   3  2   9.8   5.4
  6250  14.6  58.3  265   5  3  11.3   6.2 |  15.2  59.4  265   3  2  10.7   5.9
  6000  15.4  59.7  265   5  3  10.8   5.9 |  16.0  60.8  265   3  2  10.8   5.9
  5750  16.2  61.2  265   5  2  10.4   5.7 |  16.8  62.2  265   3  2  10.5   5.7
  5500  17.0  62.6  265   5  2  13.3   7.3 |  17.5  63.5  260   3  1   9.4   5.2
  5250  18.2  64.8  265   5  2  17.6   9.6 |  18.1  64.6  265   3  1   7.7   4.2
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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