Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 240702
SWODY3
SPC AC 240701

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF COAST STATES.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF WRN U.S. TROUGH INTO THE DAY3 PERIOD.  A SUBSTANTIAL
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK SHOULD TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
BEFORE EJECTING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THIS
SCENARIO FAVORS A LEE CYCLONE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH A SHARP DRY
LINE...LIKELY ARCING ACROSS NWRN-SWRN TX AT PEAK HEATING.  WHILE
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A COASTAL BOUNDARY MAY RETARD NWD
ADVANCEMENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO NCNTRL TX...INCREASING
DIFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW AND APPROACHING SPEED MAX SUGGEST
MOISTENING WILL RAPIDLY SURGE NWD LATE IN THE PERIOD.  IF THIS
MOISTURE RETURNS BY LATE AFTERNOON THEN SCT SUPERCELLS SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE.  STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT FAVOR NWD DEVELOPMENT INTO OK AFTER DARK.

...GULF STATES...

SEASONALLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SRN STATES THROUGH SUNDAY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
SFC FRONT AS IT SAGS SWD TO NEAR I-20 BY 27/00Z...AND ALONG
FAVORABLE SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENT ZONES.  IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUCH
THAT A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THEN SEVERE
PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED.  FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE 5
PERCENT SEVERE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED NATURE.

..DARROW.. 04/24/2015



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