Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 311728
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST IS IN OK SHAPE...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF CONCERN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. FOR
TODAY...HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THE WEST RIVER FIRE ZONES. VERY DRY AIR WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL THOUGH...BUT
LEANED TOWARDS ISSUING THE WARNING DUE TO THE FACT THAT FUELS ARE
STILL MOSTLY DEAD ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE HAS BEEN AN UPTICK
IN FIRE ACTIVITY THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR WIND
VALUES ACROSS FAITH/PHILIP AREA ARE A BIT MORE PROMISING THAN
PIERRE SO CURRENT HAZARD PLACEMENT FITS THE SITUATION FOR THE TIME
BEING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE THOUGH ON THE PIERRE FIRE
ZONE 270 IN CASE WINDS START TO GUST AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. WILL SEE SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. RH VALUES WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO TANK DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FOLLOW THE FRONT. COULD
ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW 20 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI...AND FLIRTING WITH 20 PERCENT FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE
JAMES VALLEY.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH
COOLER AIR SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECTING RH VALUES
TO BE A TAD HIGHER. HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH...THEY ARE STILL
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S WHICH WILL MAKE FOR VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER NONETHELESS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MAINLY AFFECTING
THE TEMPERATURES. THE LONG TERM STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH
MAYBE SOME BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL LATE. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
WITH COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW IN BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO THE MID 50S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES TO MORE WESTERLY WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. THE ISSUE IS WITH THE GFS
AND EC SURFACE PRESSURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE EC HAS
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND COOLER AIR FLOW WITH COOLER GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THAN THE GFS. THE EC HAS 40S
FOR HIGHS FOR ABERDEEN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS/MEX
GUIDANCE HAS 50S. THUS...MAY HAVE TO LOWER HIGHS SOME FOR THE CWA
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IF THE EC STAYS ON TRACK. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS ALL SHOW A DECENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME
CHANCES OF RAIN TO OUR REGION. WILL SEE IF THIS MATERIALIZES WITH
RAIN BEING HARD TO COME BY LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ267>271.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267-
     268.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...CONNELLY






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