Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 040536 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1236 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT QUITE A BIT
OF CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST...AND EXPECT IT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND TEMPERATURE TNT...AND
THEN PCPN CHANCES LATER IN THE PERIOD. FOR TNT DRY AIRMASS SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION UNDER DECREASING CLOUDS AND SLACKENING WINDS.
THIS SHOULD SPELL SOME COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY WITH
THE COLDEST OVER THE JAMES VALLEY DUE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE. FOR NOW
HAVE SETTLED ON TEMPS A BIT ABOVE FREEZING WITH PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD SYSTEM
EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THAT
SYSTEM WILL HELP BRING SFC WARM FRONT NORTH AND USHER IN A LITTLE
BETTER LLM/INSTABILITY/UVM WITH SHOWERS/FEW STORMS BREAKING OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH GREATEST WAA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
OVERALL SHOULD AVERAGE OUT AROUND NORMAL EXCEPTING TNT WHERE LOWS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS
THE LONG TERM OPENS...A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO GULF
MOISTURE...RAISING PWAT VALUES TO THE 1 TO 1.4 INCH RANGE...OR
NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THE
FORCING...MOISTURE AND MODEL CONSENSUS HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
PERSIST. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE OR SHEAR...SO ONLY GENERAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED. SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT LATER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN FOR PART OF THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS EVEN STRONGER...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A PRETTY
STABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR





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