Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 301132 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
632 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

FIRST ITEM OF DISCUSSION WILL BE THE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST RH VALUES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME WIND GUSTS MEET OR EXCEED 25 MPH
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST SD. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD ALREADY
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE ZONES 269 AND 271. BASED ON
CURRENT FORECAST RH AND WIND GUSTS...HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND RED
FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE FIRE ZONES 272 AND 273 AS WELL. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL...BUT SHOULD STILL BE AROUND OR JUST
OVER 25 MPH GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE NOT
ALL TOO IMPRESSIVE...ONLY AROUND 20 KNOTS. BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOMENTUM TO SEE HIGHER GUSTS.

WILL ALSO BE WATCHING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SCT ACTIVITY
MOVING INTO CORSON AND DEWEY COUNTIES AFTER 21Z SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS AND WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING INSTEAD OF UNCERTAINTY. HI RES
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTING ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER
ALONG THE FRONT IN SOME FORM OF A BROKEN LINE AS IT TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT A BIT AS WELL AND
CONTINUED THE COVERAGE WORDING. ONLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY PRESENT
BUT JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSHOWERS AS WELL.
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE CWA BY 12Z
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY ITSELF LOOKING VERY PLEASANT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM QUITE A BIT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. GOOD MIXING DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON WITH
IMPRESSIVE WARMING AT THE SFC. WIDESPREAD 80S ARE EXPECTED AND
ANTICIPATE SATURDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SPRING THUS FAR.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE ARRIVAL OF A SFC TROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS. MOISTURE MAY
BE LIMITED SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS ON SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT RELATIVELY QUIET...THOUGH SUPERBLEND KEEPS
SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY
BRING SHOWERS.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT TUESDAY NIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LOW
STARTS TO MOVE EAST. COUPLED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING ATMOSPHERICALLY STACKED LOW AND AN OPEN GULF
STARTING ON WED PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE GREATLY. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM.
IF THIS PATTERN PERSISTS AND IT DOES NOT SHIFT SOUTH AS HAS BEEN
THE TREND...THIS LOW WILL BE ONE OF THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED
SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS THE REGION HAS SEEN ALL YEAR.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TODAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH. SOME SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ269-271>273.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE







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