Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 242028
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
328 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE
WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...A LOW FREEZING
LEVEL COULD RESULT IN SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. MOST
HI-RES MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 14 WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING PCPN TONIGHT.
A STORM MOTION AROUND 10 KNOTS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHILE PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 6Z...SOME HI-RES
MODELS SHOW SHOWERS RETROGRADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

BEYOND TONIGHT...PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING OVER
MINNESOTA WILL PRODUCE A STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. RIGHT
NOW...INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL...SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT MODELS DISAGREE WITH BOTH THE STRENGTH
AND THE TIMING. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW.

WARMER AIR LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT
DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...WILL LEAVE
THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




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