Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 240214 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
914 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE CWA...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS THERE. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SHORT WAVE IS RATHER
WEAK...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THE LLJ LATER
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST A DRY PERIOD ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 15-21Z AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND ANOTHER
INVADES THE REGION. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL DRAW HIGHER DEW POINTS
INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE VALUES
IN THE MID 40S ARE LIKELY. MU-CAPES VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE KPIR AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE INCREASING...THERE IS LIMITED
FORCING...OTHER THAN SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR.
MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA BY 18Z. THIS RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA COULD PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM MODELS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A LARGE 50H TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST. THE STRONGEST ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS OUR REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS WERE
INDICATING RAINFALL ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION.
THUS...HAVE DECENT CHANCES...MAINLY WEST...FOR SHOWERS FROM
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE CWA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
ON BY...THE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER OUR
REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS...EXPECT A
WARM UP ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 70S
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN





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