Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 261543 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1043 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

STARTING TO SEE SOME CU CLOUDS FORMING ACROSS CENTRAL SD LATE THIS
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE OTHER CLOUDS ON SATELLITE THIS
MORNING WILL KEEP THIS AREA PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY.
THE REST OF THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THE SHOWERS IN WESTERN SD SHOULD STAY THERE THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH WEAK
ASSOCIATED ENERGY SLIDING UNDER THE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK FORCING AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ALLOWS FOR SMALL POPS ACROSS OUR
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH QPF REMAINS LOW.
FURTHER EAST...A DRIER FLOW ORIGINATING FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE HUDSON BAY REGION WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. IN
FACT...MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN CWA.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES...BUT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. MOISTURE ISNT OVERLY
ABUNDANT...SO AGAIN LOOKING AT VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF QPF.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT THU NIGHT AS A SFC FRONT AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING
THE FIRST CHANCES OF PRECIP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK LOWS...AT LEAST
ON THE ECMWF...MAY BRING SOME FURTHER PRECIP CHANCES FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY AT
THESE TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF THIS MORNING NEAR KMBG AND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON
THE TAF.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE






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