Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 011146 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
646 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RULE THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PASSING
THROUGH THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY 12Z WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS
TODAY WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...TEMPS AT 925/850 MB ARE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE 70S.

WARMER 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY...AND ARE
APPROACHING TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THESE WARM TEMPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE
80S. A FEW LOCATIONS LIKE ABERDEEN COULD SEE RECORD...OR NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. OF COURSE WITH AN ABNORMALLY WARM AIR
MASS AND SOUTHERLY BREEZE...FIRE WEATHER IS A CONCERN ON SATURDAY.
RH VALUES SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE. A
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A 35 KTS LLJ DEVELOPS. PCPN SHOULD
GRADUALLY END ON SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO START
THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA AT LEAST SO HAVE LOWERED SUPERBLEND LOWS A BIT IN THE JAMES
VALLEY WHERE IT ALWAYS COOLS DOWN IN THESE SITUATIONS. WILL ALSO
BE WATCHING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MAINLY AFFECTING WESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. SUPERBLEND POPS GAVE SLIGHT CHANCES AND THIS LOOKS
GOOD FOR NOW AS MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS
THAT AREA.

BY FAR...THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
MID WEEK UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WHICH LOOKS MORE AND MORE
PROMISING EACH MODEL RUN. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT REGARDLESS...ALL
MODELS STILL BRINGING AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO THURSDAY
AT LEAST. GFS EVEN SHOWING 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN SD
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BASICALLY FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND POPS AT
THIS POINT...WHICH HAVE PRETTY DECENT CHANCES DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT SFC WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT






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