Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 300526 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
WEAK TROF THAT QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS THE CWA LATE THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE EAST...A 30KT LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS WEST RIVER. THIS WILL MIX OUT ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...WITH MIXED DOWN WINDS ON THE ORDER
OF 15 TO 20KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25KTS. THE CORE OF STRONGEST
WINDS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE JAMES VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHER MIXED DEWPOINT AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROF...THEREFORE WILL EXPECT A WINDOW WHERE WINDS AND MIN RH
VALUES PHASE FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE MISSOURI AND
JAMES VALLEYS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 60KT JET
STREAK WILL FOCUS BEST LIFT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
MINNESOTA...WITH THE GFS/NAM/GEM REDUCING/REMOVING MUCH OF THE
QPF. NAM GENERATES A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE SO WILL KEEP MENTION
OF THUNDER THOUGH SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY UNSTABLE...SO KEPT
POPS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT AND MERELY LOWERED QPF.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY...REACHING THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL THE LOW
REACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN LOOKS TO
TRACK ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE WILL BE SOME CAPE ALONG THE
FRONT. MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT SOUTH OF THE REGION. TUESDAY LOOKS
DRY FOR NOW...THEN WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WINDS
UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KPIR AND
KMBG SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING A COLD FROPA BY 00Z FRIDAY...WITH THAT
COLD FRONT AT OR JUST THROUGH KABR AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. RAIN
SHOWER CHANCES START SHOWING UP AT KMBG AROUND 23Z
THURSDAY...LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS. THE RAIN SHOWER CHANCES WILL
SWITCH OVER TO THE KABR TERMINAL AFTER 03Z FRIDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ269-271.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE







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