Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 272348 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
648 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTING THE REGION FROM THE NE TO THE SW WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD TONIGHT. MOST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
TRACK ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION WITH SEVERAL SHOWING SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OCCURRING IN THE
EASTERN CWA BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT FAIRLY
QUICKLY WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING FROM THE 40S IN THE MORNING...TO
THE LOWER 30S BY THE AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THE DRY AIR MASS...IN COMBINATION WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWS IN LYING AREAS COULD FALL AS LOW AS
30 DEGREES. LATER SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER LOWERING TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE MORE. THANKFULLY THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT FULLY STARTED
YET AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
WITHIN THE PAST WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER COULD BE A CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY. RH VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER ONLY THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
COULD BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY...AND ARE COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT
WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WHICH FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY
SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY BOTH SYSTEMS ARE FAST MOVING...AND LITTLE
EVIDENCE EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH BOTH
FEATURES...AS THE LINK TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE IS NON EXISTENT
WITH THE FIRST WAVE AND TENUOUS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR
THE SECOND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NO MAJOR ANOMALIES ARE NOTED IN THE
GEFS...HOWEVER EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MILD DAYTIME HIGHS AND
LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES DUE TO THE ANTECEDENT DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS PRESENTLY...WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AT KPIR. INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR
LOW CIGS OF 1500FT TO 3500FT DEVELOPING AT KMBG...KABR AND KATY
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FROPA WORKING ACROSS THE REGION.
ALSO...AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT OR NEAR THE
KMBG TERMINAL BY MORNING...IF SKIES CLEAR OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...DORN






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