Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 022328 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
628 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SPOTS MAY PEAK AROUND 90 DEGREES BEFORE THE
DAY IS OVER. DEWPOINTS WHICH WERE ORIGINALLY IN THE 50S THIS
MORNING...HAVE MIXED OUT TO THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE AREA OF CU EXTENDING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...FROM ABOUT KBIS TO KD07 TO KRAP. WILL MONITOR THIS
BOUNDARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT COMBINES WITH MLCAPE
VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND AROUND 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. MOISTURE IS THE REAL
LIMITING FACTOR...BUT BRIEF WIND GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND DRY
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL THE LOW
LEVEL JET KICKS IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT...AT WHICH
TIME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS VERY
POSSIBLE.

A COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND MIN RH LOOKS TO BE RIGHT IN THE 20
PERCENT RANGE...SO WILL AGAIN HAVE TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BY MONDAY SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
BE TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH...AND LOW POPS ARE INTRODUCED
INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THERE ACTUALLY IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN TODAYS 12Z
LONG TERM MODELS. A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A TROF DIGGING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN FORCES A SYSTEM OVER BAHA TO EJECT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH SHOWERS/STORMS SPREADING NORTH WITH
THAT FEATURE EARLY IN THE FORECAST. THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN POPS/PCPN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT MAJOR
SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND.
INSTABILITY NEVER GETS PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT SHEAR WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SO SOMETHING TO WATCH AS NEXT WEEKEND GETS CLOSER.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THE SCATTERED
NATURE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THE TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ268-
     269-271>273.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN





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