Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 051941 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
241 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTH AND ARE IMPACTING THE PIERRE AREA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT HEATING TODAY. THUS HAVE LOWERED HIGHS IN CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BY A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AM WILL PERPETUATE THE LOW DEWPOINT
AIRMASS WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS TO INHIBIT HEATING. THUS...EXPECT
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA TO EXPERIENCE BETTER
MIXING...BREEZIER CONDITIONS...WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER AFTERNOON
RH. TO THE SOUTH...THE AIRMASS OVER NEBRASKA IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
HUMID...AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SOUNDINGS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...WITH SKINNY CAPE
SUPPORTING MAINLY WEAK DIABATICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDER. A
50KT LOW LEVEL JET IN NEBRASKA DEVELOPS TONIGHT SUPPORTING
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDER AS THE FIRST WAVE LIFTS NORTH. Q VECTORS
SUGGEST SOME UPPER SUPPORT AS WELL. PROFILES REMAIN MOIST
ADIABATIC WITH A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG CAPE WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING
ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDER.
THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF A TROWAL FEATURE LINGERING INTO LATE
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD. COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS
FOR THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH COOLING PROFILES COULD SEE SOME MID
LEVEL SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. WE HAVE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITING THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA WAITING TO LIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
US. COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM WITH
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE DRY ACROSS THE CWA. THE SOUTHWEST US UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA
ALONG WITH IT ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO LIFT INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE IN GOOD CHANCES OF RAINFALL AT THIS TIME FOR THIS
ENTIRE PERIOD. EXPECT MONDAY TO DRY OUT SOME AND REMAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR /POSSIBLY
IFR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY/ CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER REALLY START TO SHOW UP NOTABLY
AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT THE KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS.
RAIN CHANCES ABOUND WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...DORN


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