Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 312005
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WX CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT RANGE. WILL
LET TODAYS WARNING RIDE DESPITE VERY MARGINAL WINDS UP TO THIS
POINT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH MORE DANGEROUS DAY CONCERNING
FIRE CONDITIONS. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINK UP WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT PER STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING MAX
HEATING. THUS WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY WEST RIVER. EAST SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER CRITERIA. HOWEVER THE WIND IN COMBINATION WITH
VERY LOW RH...DRY FUELS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED
ALONG WITH MY NEIGHBORS TO UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE BASICALLY NON EXISTENT. MID
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY MIGHT SUPPORT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BUT THATS
ABOUT IT. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER ON
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LONG WAVE PATTERN DOMINATED BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROF AND A WEAK
RIDGE TO THE WEST...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MID LEVEL LIFT THOUGH LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH A 20C SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...AND CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 8 AND 10KFT. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. MIXED DOWN WINDS
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25KTS. RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK WESTERN CONUS TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES COULD EJECT OUT OVER THE
REGION AND BRING US A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD AS WARMER AIR IS SUPPRESSED
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ267>271.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267-
     268.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ003-015-033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY





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