Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 310537 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1237 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 802 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING QUICKLY. NO
MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FIRE WEATHER ON TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN.

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE EXCEED EXPECTATIONS...DEW
POINTS ARE NOT AS LOW AS EXPECTED. THUS RH VALUES ARE STILL ABOVE
20 PERCENT. WHILE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT BEING MET...BELIEVE
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL CAUSE EXTREME FIRE DANGER. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY...SUSTAINED OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 MPH
APPEARS BEST WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THE WINDS
APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL...WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
WEST RIVER FIRE ZONES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONT COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR THE EASTERN
CWA. HOWEVER THE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS RATHER
DRY...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES SHOULD BE HIGHER...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS COULD CAUSE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE COULD BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS SIMILARLY DEPICTED BY MOST LONG
RANGE MODELS UNTIL ABOUT 144 HOURS AND LATER. AT THAT POINT THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM/CFS SHOW MORE TROFFING MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE TROF OFFSHORE FOR A FEW EXTRA PERIODS
BEFORE EJECTING IT INLAND. WHICH IS CORRECT? HARD TO SAY FOR SURE
WITH SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT OUTSIDE THE ECMWF. HOWEVER THAT SAID THE
ECMWF IS OFTEN TIMES THE FIRST MODEL TO SHOW A SLOWER EVOLUTION OF
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...AND THEREFORE CANT BE TOTALLY DISCOUNTED.

GENERALLY SPEAKING THE FORECAST IS MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST WEAK
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PCPN MIGHT ENTER THE PICTURE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS SOME ENERGY
RIDES THE FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES
OVERALL SHOULD AVERAGE OUT NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BRIEFLY TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING TO THE
EAST ON TUESDAY. AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KTS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ267-268.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MOHR





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