Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 020250 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
950 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...WITH JUST A FEW WEAK WAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE
REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL USHER VERY WARM AIR OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE TEMPERATURES
TOP OUT IN THE 80S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A
CONCERN IN THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS. WILL THEN SEE
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT TRACKS ACROSS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY
AROUND...SO A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVE BACK IN BEHIND THE
EXITING FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS WAS MENTIONED ABOVE...HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL BE COMMON ON
SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR RETURNING ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EAST SEEING TEMPERATURES FALL ONLY INTO THE
LOWER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MODELS START IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BUT PRETTY MUCH LOSE ANY CONSENSUS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW INITIALLY...BUT A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES A BROAD SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA. MODELS SHOW
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT HAS ALLOWED FOR BLENDED GUIDANCE TO PRODUCE HIGH CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS OVER OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE. THE ECMWF QUICKLY KICKS THE TROUGH
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS QUICKLY
FOLLOWING BEHIND. THE GFS HOWEVER SHOWS A CLOSED LOW LINGERING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEREFORE PRODUCES A
SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER PERIOD OF QPF.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE TIME
PERIOD...COOLING INTO THE 60S WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES
BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

PLAN FOR GOOD VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 00Z SUNDAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINS TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN







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