Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 031737 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1237 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY. FIRE WX IS STILL A CONCERN
AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION.  REFRESHES OUT SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST INTO MN AFTER
AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. COLD FRONT
IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN
A EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE WHILE NORTH CENTRAL SD IS STARTING TO
SEE NORTHERLY WINDS. TREND THROUGH THE MORNING WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING SOUTH AND COOLER AIR MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER ONCE
AGAIN AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
THE BREEZY WINDS. ALTHOUGH...CURRENT FORECAST RH VALUES REMAIN
JUST ABOVE 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA SO WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY HEADLINES THIS MORNING.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. DROPPED LOWS A
FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY WHERE WE CONTINUE TO
FORECAST LOWS TOO WARM IN THESE SITUATIONS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE UPCOMING PATTERN CHANGE LATER THIS WEEK
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAINFALL CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE
BEGINNING TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS DEWPOINTS BEGIN CREEPING INTO AND THROUGH THE 50S. MODELS
SHOW PRECIP POTENTIAL MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SD DURING
THE DAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP OCCUR IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THERE IS A SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A LARGE/DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE
US WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH PWATS AND SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING BETWEEN TWO
TO THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ABNORMALLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN COMBINATION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD DEPART THE REGION BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 OR 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING
OFF THIS EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SERR





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