Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 011440
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND
REMAINS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE JAMESTOWN/CARRINGTON AREAS. BEHIND
THE FRONT WINDS HAVE BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTY. GOING
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL...SO ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADJUST
TOWARDS CURRENT TIMING OF THE FRONT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY
13-14 UTC...AND PROPAGATE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY MID DAY.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. RECENT OBSERVED FIRE BEHAVIOR
SUGGESTS ANY FIRE START WILL RAPIDLY GROW GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD COMPONENT AND PLENTIFUL DRY FUELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ONCE AGAIN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
STRONG WEST WINDS AROUND 40 MPH WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THIS IS WHERE THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
PAINT A 6 TO 8 MB/6HR PRESSURE RISE AND A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER FAR NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. ELSEWHERE SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE BEST FORCING AND
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. DRY
CONDITIONS...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS AROUND 20 PERCENT
WILL COMBINE WITH THE GUSTY WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

RATHER NORMAL EARLY APRIL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

A WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON
THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. PERHAPS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MAY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THE 00 UTC NAM AND GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS DO DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOMENTUM WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
TRANSFER. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL...SUPPORTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND SPORADIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENTS WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...THROUGH KISN AND KDIK AS OF 11 UTC...WILL ENTER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BY MIDDAY. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40
KTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST
AREA WIDE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD
MIXING...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL FALL TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT SOUTH AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT NORTH. GIVEN OBSERVED FIRE
BEHAVIOR OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...RAPID FIRE GROWTH IS
EXPECTED WITH ANY START AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 30S
TO THE MID 40S...WHICH WILL HELP TO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT BY SOME DEGREE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...AYD






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