Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 180947
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
447 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAIN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AS TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS CONVERGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY...MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH AND ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN. SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAIN...CONCLUDED THROUGH GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CURRENT 00Z MODEL SUITE. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE FORECAST TO INITIATE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ON SUNDAY...DEEPENING TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER MANITOBA WHILE LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WASHES INTO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL STILL KEEP LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THOUGH THE DAY IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW RAIN/SNOW CHANCES LINGERING OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

UPPER LOW PUSHES ALONG THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING PRIMARILY OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...DECREASING TOWARDS THE WEST.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...UPPER LOW SLOWLY WORKS OFF
TO THE EAST KEEPING NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING WAVE
SLIDES THROUGH THE FLOW...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL CONVERGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CREATING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KDIK/KBIS/KJMS HAVE THE
GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN/THUNDER. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER OVER THIS REGION...INCREASING
BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS STILL MAY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AC
FIRE WEATHER...AC/JJS






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