Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 192005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA. HAVE HAD MANY
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION IN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN OF FADING WITH THE
APPROACH OF SUNSET. REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF US.
HOWEVER...NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CURVED JET
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. QUIET AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MVFR/VFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCATTER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...A DRY AND
WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3
WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. TO THE EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3 ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS NEAR 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT GREEN UP OF
VEGETATION...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS EXPECTED WITH ANY FIRE START.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...AYD








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