Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 151117
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
617 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS SLOW
MOVING SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS TOWARDS
CURRENT TRENDS AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOW. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FIRE WEATHER (SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW) AND WINDS.

WINDS HAD INCREASED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. USED BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WIND SPEED GUIDANCE - ASSUMING MIXING
DIRECTLY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND H850 FOR THIS MORNING. WIND
ADVISORY-LIKE WIND SPEEDS OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SEE NO
REASON FOR WINDS TO DECREASE - ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
IN THE WEST...THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WAS RIGHT AT THE MT/ND
BORDER...AND EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE DICKINSON/HETTINGER AREAS
TO DECREASE DURING THE MORNING. THE NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE FRONT ARE RATHER STRONG...BUT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE
LOW CENTER (CURRENTLY NEAR BEACH) TO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH WITH
TIME. THIS WOULD KEEP THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FARTHER SOUTH
IN WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA.

WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING AT PRESS
TIME...4 AM CDT AND VALID UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. AS THE
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND IF/WHEN
WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE...COUNTIES MAY BE TAKEN OUT OF THE WIND
ADVISORY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THOUGHT BEST TO KEEP
THINGS SIMPLE...ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS BEING PROBLEMATIC WITH FIRE
CONCERNS THE HIGHER PRIORITY. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SLOWER MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S NOW EXPECTED IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND IN THE 60S FARTHER WEST.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DECREASE...AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OF 35 TO 45.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

ON THURSDAY...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA WITH
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET AND MILD
CONDITIONS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AND OPENS UP THIS WEEKEND AS TROUGH
SLIDES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO BRINGING ACTIVE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. VARIETY
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SLIDING DOWN BACKSIDE OF LOW WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 25-35 KNOTS AT
KDIK/KBIS/KMOT...WITH KJMS INCREASING TO 25-35 KNOTS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. KISN IS NEAR A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND WINDS THERE
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS. ADDED A WIND SHEAR
COMPONENT WITH A 50 KNOT WIND AROUND 1400-2000FEET. THE SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KISN BY AROUND 14Z-16Z...AND AT KDIK
AROUND 18Z. THE STRONGEST WINDS AFTER 12Z SHOULD BE AT KJMS WITH
STRONGEST WINDS FROM 15Z-24Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ENCROACHING FROM MONTANA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY TODAY.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. THE RED
FLAG WILL ALSO INCLUDE ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE WEST.

REASONING: GIVEN THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT - ALLOWING
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES DID NOT FALL AS QUICKLY AS
EARLIER EXPECTED - LIKELY DUE TO STRONG MIXING - AND IN TURN -
DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY DID NOT INCREASE AS EXPECTED. WITH THIS
IN MIND - ALSO RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES - ESPECIALLY OVER ALL OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA - GOING WITH THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
VALUES. THE STRONG MIXING WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
LOWER...COUNTERING ANY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.

THE COMBINATION OF LOWER RH AND HIGHER WINDS IN TODAY`S FORECAST
PACKAGE LED TO RAISING THE RED FLAG A BIT FARTHER WEST. WARNING WILL
INCLUDE RENVILLE/WARD TO GRANT/SIOUX COUNTIES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-
042-045>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...JV






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