Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 260916
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
416 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN AND CLOUDS
TODAY/TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
SURFACE LOW HAS ALSO ENTERED SOUTHERN CANADA AND LEFT A WEAK FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE 00 UTC NSSL AND NCEP WRF RUNS
CAPTURE THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA QUITE WELL THIS
MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS AND
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT.

CLOUD COVER MAY BRIEFLY ERODE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
THE WEST BY LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE NEARS. MEANWHILE
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER WILL STRUGGLE
TO REBOUND MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TWO DISTINCT S/WV`S AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS ALONG TO BEHIND THE FROPA AS
IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
POPS MONDAY-MONDAY EVE WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SOMETIME AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY.

RETURN FLOW AND STRONG WAA WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALLOWING FLOW ALOFT TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST. STRONG S/WV TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PROCEEDS EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AM AND INTO/THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ADVERTISED (500-800J/KG). THIS
WILL BE WORTH MONITORING CONSIDERING THE STRONG SFC AND MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT
KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN SLOWLY
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KJMS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ








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