Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 310921
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
421 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER COULD ACTUALLY PROVE TO BE RATHER
HAZARDOUS AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS LIKELY. AN 850 MB THERMAL
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THIS COMBINED
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MIXING WEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE...AS MOST
RECORDS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ARE
ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR MORE INFORMATION
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAIN FORCING IN
CANADA...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO BE
ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE 00 THROUGH THE 06 UTC INCOMING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SUITES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEING
IMPACTED BY THE DRY SLOT OF THE STACKED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS WITH DEEP
MIXING THROUGH 750-700 MB. NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE TEENS AND 20S F IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD SEND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO CRITICAL
LEVELS. GIVEN FIRE BEHAVIOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
SOUTHWEST...THE VERY STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE
DRIVE THE OVERALL FIRE THREAT. A MUCH COOLER DAY ON THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THEREAFTER...A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SETS
UP INTO NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
TODAY...LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
WHERE THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS AREA. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR WEDNESDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-
051.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ









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