Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 041732
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1232 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE WERE A
LITTLE AHEAD OF THE TEMPERATURE CURVE...SO INCREASED TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE SPOTS TO BETTER REFLECT THE TRENDS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS MOST OF THE SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE NORTH FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE HRRR BRINGS A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS TOWARDS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL POPS IN THAT
LOCATION. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO TREND
POPS LOWER OVER THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS EARLIER HAVE
DISSIPATED. THUS DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. LATEST
NAM AND RAP INDICATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY
EVENING...THUS DROPPED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVENING POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO END THE FROST ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
RISING THIS MORNING. MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ARE MOSTLY IN THE 40S ALREADY. OTHERWISE ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER THIS MORNING WITH
CLEAR SKIES TO THE NORTH. BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
IN WESTERN BOWMAN COUNTY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

ALSO UPDATED AND TRIMMED THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AS
THE CAPE SHUNTS OFF TO THE EAST LEAVING THE WEST AND CENTRAL
MAINLY STABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

FOR THE NEAR TERM...MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS THE FROST ADVISORY THROUGH 9AM
CDT MONDAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
ISOLATED SPOTS OF UPPER 20S AROUND HAZEN TO GLEN ULLIN. OVERALL THE
FROST ADVISORY IS VERIFYING AND WILL CONTINUE AS SCHEDULED.

IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS UNDERGOING A
CHANGE...FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
JET BRANCH AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CONUS BEGINS TO
SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY...STILL ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TO SHUNT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES
EARLY THIS MORNING ARE LEADING THE CHANGE TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
UPPER FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE SHORTWAVES ARE LOCATED ACROSS
WYOMING...ONE IN NORTHWEST AND THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHEAST. LIGHT RAIN PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR
WAS OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.
FOR TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...A
BUILDING 700MB RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY/LIGHT WINDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVES...BUT
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS VERTICAL MOTION GETS SQUASHED AS
THE SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH. WITH
THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST TODAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WILL
COINCIDE WITH ELEVATED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF AROUND 35
PERCENT. THE WEAKEST WINDS...AROUND 10 MPH...WILL COINCIDE WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 PERCENT. THUS NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES TODAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
LEVELS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT AS THE 700MB RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA. HOWEVER NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES/PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

GFS/ECMWF LOOK IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE REASONABLE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AS WELL. MODELS MOVE AN H500 LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA
EAST AS A LARGE H500 TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE WESTERN US
BEGINNING TUESDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS SOME H500 ENERGY KICKS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND MOVES NORTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A COOLDOWN AS THE H500 TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION AND AN H850 THERMAL TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE
REGION SAT/SUNDAY PERIOD. REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER FRIDAY DO TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. GFS TEMPERATURES MAY
BE COOL ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SAT NIGHT BUT DO NOT WANT TO
MAKE TOO MUCH OF THIS AS THE ECMWF IS WARMER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN 50S AND 60S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND IN THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR EACH OF THE TAF SITES WITH INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AC


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