Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 251755
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1255 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WAS TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE
WARMEST AREA COULD BE THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED
AND COULD GET A BIT OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDING UP
LATER. LOWERED SKY COVER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THINK ITS A LONG SHOT LATEST WRF SHOWS SHOWERS...MAYBE SOME
THUNDER DISSIPATING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA 23-02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO AN
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS AND NEW NAM INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND TODAY...WITH SHOWERS SLOW TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER. WILL
BUMP UP SKY COVER AND PUSH BACK POPS CHANCES IN THE WEST UNTIL 21
UTC. LOWERED TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT. MAY NEED TO RE-VISIT
TEMPERATURES WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MAJOR EDITS TO THE GOING FORECAST. STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MOIST/EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. MODELS TRY
TO ERODE THE CLOUDS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SEEM LIKELY. AREAS OF FOG
PERSIST...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG SOUTHWEST WHERE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING IS LOW CLOUD COVER
AND FOG...LEADING TO AVIATION ISSUES. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW IS BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTING IN VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY
ABOUT 2/3 OF NORTH DAKOTA IS COVERED. THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY TO MONTANA THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE CLOUD COVER AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FORCING BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT.

THE LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO DELAY PRECIPITATION FROM
ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE
TRENDS FROM EARLIER FORECAST UPDATES AND PUSHED PRECIP CHANCES
EVEN FURTHER WESTWARD AND DELAYED ONSET. HOWEVER...UNLIKE
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00 AND 06 UTC MODELS BRING AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CANADIAN BOARDER. AS SUCH INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A BAND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY TOMORROW MORNING. WITH VERY
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FEATURES (SURFACE LOW...LONG WAVE
TROUGH OUT WEST...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY...SEVERAL HOURS
OF MUCH NEED LIGHT RAIN APPEARS LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SLOWLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE ORIGINATING FROM
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL ROTATE NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS MY WEST LIFTING NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY 12Z. BEST VERTICAL MOTION WILL OCCUR ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL
MAINTAIN ELEVATED POPS THERE SUNDAY DAYTIME. FRONT STARTS TO
ORIENTATE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
WEST AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST.

FOR EARLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...RE-ENERGIZING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT WILL BE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
WEST WITH AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER KDIK-KISN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST TO KMOT
AND PROBABLY JUST WEST AND NORTH OF KBIS 12-18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH






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