Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 020459
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1159 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR AND BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL
RETURNS OVER MILES CITY. THE HRRR 1KM SLICE AND COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY PICKS UP ON THIS AREA AND TRIES TO DEVELOP AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH 10Z ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUD
BASES APPEAR AROUND 15KFT CURRENTLY...AND WITH THE FAIRLY QUICK
SPEED IN THE ECHOES AND MINIMAL AREAL COVERAGE...AT BEST A
SPRINKLE OR BRIEF WIND GUST MAY OCCUR. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
COOLING INTO THE MID 40S AT DICKINSON AND GLEN ULLIN...SO HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS DOWN A BIT QUICKER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALREADY
HAD THEM IN THE LOWER 40S AND WITH PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THIS
REMAINS ON TRACK. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER SATURDAY AND
WILL LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT THIS IN THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS TROUGH 00
UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT IN REGION OF STRONG MIXING/STEEP LAPSE
RATES. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY IS NOTED...THOUGH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY LOW
LEVELS THOUGH THIS MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY A WEST COAST TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME PHASED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW
NEAR 160W IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE CUT OFF LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...AND THE
STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SUPPORT SOME
OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SEEN IN THE REGION FOR SOME
TIME.

AT THIS POINT...THERE IS NO INDICATION OF WHETHER STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE...BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AS SUCH
DYNAMICALLY FORCED SYSTEMS ARE TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST
SOME SEVERE WEATHER DURING SPRING MONTHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12Z-15Z SATURDAY...THEN TRANSLATE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...21Z-00Z. EXPECTED A
WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST/NORTHWEST. A VCTS WILL BE
MENTIONED AT KMOT AND KJMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MANY PARTS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ON
SATURDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL START TO SWITCH TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF FURTHER HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED. DAILY CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL COME TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS


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