Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 180253
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATE. DEW POINTS ON THE
RISE SO FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS APPEAR ON TRACK.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

INHERITED FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. DID BUMP UP SKY COVER ACROSS
THE SOUTH WITH SATELLITE INDICATING BKN-OVC UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTH. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO 20S RIGHT
NOW...BUT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT SO FELT
FORECAST LOWS ARE ALRIGHT. WILL MONITOR IN CASE TEMPS DROP OFF
LIKE THEY DID LAST THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SHORT TERM ARE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT
NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND THE BEGINNINGS OF POTENTIAL BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL.

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER..SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
DETAILS. THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS COLORADO/NEW MEXICO
PROPAGATING NORTHEAST AND PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RESULTANT CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IS MORE BROAD...AND FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON THE 12 UTC CONSENSUS COMPARED TO THE
00 AND 06 UTC ITERATIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SECONDLY...PRECIPITATION
ONSET IS DELAYED A BIT LONGER INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN EAST-
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS ADVECTING DRIER AIR
INTO NORTH DAKOTA THAT WILL HAVE TO BE INITIALLY OVERCOME BY
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS RAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO...WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER LOW
PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SOMETIME SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE LOW ACROSS
COLORADO ENTERS THE DAKOTAS. AMPLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT VIA A CURVED
JET AND LOWER LEVEL LIFT VIA A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE 00 AND 06
UTC MODELS WERE SHOWING THE BULK OF THE RAIN FORMING OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THE 12 UTC MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF RAINFALL
FURTHER WEST. THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/NAM INDICATE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL (HALF INCH OR GREATER) COULD FALL NEAR BISMARCK AND
POINTS EAST. THE SREF IS STILL A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FALLING NEAR FARGO. AFTER THE PHASED LOW EXITS
NORTH DAKOTA IT IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AND STALL OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA INTO A RATHER COOL...AND DRY
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
50S DURING THE DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL FALL AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AT THIS
TIME...VALUES APPEAR TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL
FORGO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...AYD






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