Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 200836
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
336 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

WET START TO THE WORK WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BECOMING BREEZY AS SFC
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ONTARIO AND NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY COOL DUE TO THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE MAIN SFC FEATURE IS A SFC LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ONTARIO
AND DEEPEN TODAY/TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
WRAP AROUND THE SFC LOW PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN....WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION TO WEAK LARGE-SCALE LIFT THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO KICK OFF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE TIP
OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
BEGINS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH A LACK OF IMPRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE
LIFT. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP UNTIL THE
EVENING HOURS...AND CURRENT AFTERNOON POP FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TOO
OPTIMISTIC. BESIDES THE PRECIP THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS FOR GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN MINNESOTA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING...BUT REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
APPROACHING 40 THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS LEADING TO MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WISCONSIN SNOWBELT REGIONS. BY THE
EVENING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AS IT WRAPS
AROUND THE DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ONTARIO. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION UP TO AN INCH IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND ONE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE SNOW BELT
REGION OF IRON AND ASHLAND COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE EXPECT A DUSTING BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THOUGH THE NIGHT AT 10 TO 20
MPH. LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NEAR 30 ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

TUESDAY....SNOWFALL ENDS AS RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
AMOUNTING TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO DUE TO FAVORABLE LAKE
SFC/UPPER LEVEL TEMP DIFF. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES COOL...FROM NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD TO NEAR 40 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES
TO MOOSE LAKE REGION.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVES WRAP AROUND THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING
THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN FOR SOME AREAS. THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL ONLY REACH AN AREA OF ONTARIO JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE GEM AND GFS MAINTAIN THE ENORMOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE ECMWF IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING H5 RIDGING INTO THE AREA BY THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL...PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 50S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AREA OF RAIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AFFECTING
MAINLY KHYR AND KDLH AS OF 06Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR
VISIBILITIES AT REMAINING SITES. THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 15Z...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR CELINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES AT
KDLH AND KHYR AS WELL. AFTER 15Z ALL SITES EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR
CEILINGS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-20KT RANGE WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 30KTS. WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 15-20KT RANGE AFTER 00Z
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AGAIN...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MVFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  32  38  27 /  20  30  40  20
INL  42  26  38  24 /  50  70  60  30
BRD  41  30  41  27 /  10  30  40  10
HYR  43  31  39  27 /  40  60  70  30
ASX  45  31  40  28 /  60  50  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LE





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