Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 040527 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1227 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT 19Z. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT HAD PUSHED PAST THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND OUT INTO THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE FRONT WAS STILL MOVING THROUGH PINE COUNTY MN AND HEADING INTO
NW WI. STILL EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NW WI WHERE
BEST INSTABILITY IS FOUND. SBCAPE AND MUCAPE WERE AROUND 1000 J/KG
AT 19Z. SFC BASED LI/S WERE AROUND -2C WITH MINIMAL CIN AND 30 TO
40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE BEFORE 00Z IN NW WI. AS THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH NW WI THIS EVENING...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NW WINDS FOR A
FEW HOURS. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP FROM THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STORMS WILL END BY 06Z AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE AREA. EXPECT THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH THE
CLEARING SKY AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...HAVE DROPPED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 60S. THIS WILL LEAD TO HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

DRY EARLY...WET MID TO LATE WEEK

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND
DRY ON TUESDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER AS A COOL EASTERLY WIND PATTERN
DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE
MEANTIME...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIG SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL BE OUR RAIN MAKER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES AND SFC LOWS OVER THE AREA.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN BEHIND THE RETREATING HIGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN MN AND WI IN THE EVENING...THEN INTO THE SRN AREA OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL STICK AROUND AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. LATEST GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS INCREASE
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...THEN DECREASE MONDAY
EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  59  45  57 /   0  10  40  60
INL  34  74  45  65 /   0   0  10  40
BRD  41  70  50  72 /   0  10  60  60
HYR  37  69  48  73 /   0  10  50  50
ASX  37  70  45  71 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...WL





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