Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 020601 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
101 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY BISECTING THE DULUTH CWA FROM SW
TO NE SHOULD SLOWLY WASH OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE PARENT WAVE
IN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION AND WEAKEN. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE BRAINERD AREA NEWD TO THE MN ARROWHEAD..SO A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN THE WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS EASTERN MN/THE ARROWHEAD/NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER..WE EXPECT
ANY SHOWERS..IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL..TO BE QUITE SHORT LIVED.

WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT..WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP FAIRLY
RAPIDLY..ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT CLEAR SOONER. SOME AREAS OF FOG
ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THE MAIN CONCERN ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP..ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW
PARTS OF THE CWA. WHILE THE STRONGEST S/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY..TEMPS
SHOULD RISE TO NEAR THE WARMEST READINGS OF THE SPRING SO FAR..
WITH UPPER 70S OR EVEN LOWER 80S OVER THE WESTERN QUARTER TO THIRD
OF THE CWA. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MEAGER AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM..AT LEAST INITIALLY..AND WITH VEGETATION STILL NOT IN A
ROBUST GREEN UP STATE..BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PLUMMET TO
HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING OUT WEST. WE COORDINATED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
WITH THE FGF OFFICE AND MIFC FOR KOOCHICHING/ITASCA AND NORTHERN
CASS COUNTIES FROM 11 AM THROUGH 8 PM SATURDAY.

A FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE OVER ERN ND WITH THE NEXT
FRONT SAT EVENING..BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD TAKE UNTIL WELL AFTER 00Z
SAT EVENING TO REACH NCENT MN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WNW TO ESE ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSING FRONT. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS NW WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF SUNDAY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THERE COULD BE
STRONG TO NEARLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
CLIMB TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES IN THE SE FORECAST AREA...SO NW WISCONSIN
COULD ALSO GET HEAVY RAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING WARM AND DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE IN THE
HIGH PLAINS NEAR COLORADO WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
THE NORTHLAND WILL SEE A PERIOD OF WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE RAINS
COULD BRING RELIEF TO DROUGHT STRICKEN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT TONIGHT. THE LATEST 00Z
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
FOG DEVELOPING AT KDLH AND KHIB. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG
OUT OF THE FORECAST.

RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...THIS WILL
ALLOW SSW WINDS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS. DAY TIME HEATING
ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KHYR.

LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA FROM THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. STILL UNCERTAIN ON THE EXTENT OF
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SO KEPT VCSH AT KINL AND KBRD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  72  43  66 /  10  50   0   0
INL  51  70  38  67 /  30  10   0   0
BRD  54  73  43  70 /  30  50   0   0
HYR  54  75  43  69 /   0  70  30   0
ASX  53  74  43  69 /   0  60  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ010-018-025-026.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...GRANING/WL






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