Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 292032
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
332 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOUR TO KEEP
WEATHER CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY SWITCHING
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST.  A MID LEVEL AREA OF CLOUDS AND
CONVERGENCE HAS PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT
THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS HAS TURNED THESE INTO SPRINKLES AT BEST.
KINL REPORTED A TRACE...BUT WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 8KFT.  THATS BARELY
ENOUGH TO WET THE SIDEWALK.  HAVE KEPT POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO
SPRINKLES...AND THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING.  SOME MID
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THURSDAY...BUT
CONTINUING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND ONLY WEAK LIFT SHOULD KEEP THESE
CLOUDS FROM PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL.  DEEP MIXING SHOULD
BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 60S TO EVEN LOW 70S...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE WEST AND MAINLY LOWER 60S OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE
LINGERING RIDGE KEEPS MIXING SHALLOWER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EAST WHICH WILL SIGNIFY A
BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVES TO MORE
FAST ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST WILL COME
THURSDAY EVENING NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A STRONG SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR
IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE  60S AND 70S  BUT THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD SLOW THE TEMPERATURE RISE. THE COLD
FRONT...ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE WILL BRING
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT IS NOT
A REAL MOIST SYSTEM WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND IT IS
ALSO MOVING QUICKLY SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL IN THE .10 AREA.
AFTER THAT FRONT GOES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A SHORT DRIER PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN ANOTHER WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND POSSIBLY CAUSES MORE
SHOWERS....THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...KEEPING SKIES VFR WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  57  35  67 /  10   0  10  40
INL  37  69  42  71 /   0   0  40  40
BRD  40  69  44  72 /   0   0  40  40
HYR  33  63  32  65 /  10   0   0  30
ASX  32  55  32  66 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC








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