Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 010847
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

AT 330 AM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH SHORE TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
EAST...BRINGING FOG TO COASTAL AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SURFACE OBSERVATION REFLECTION...BUT KDLH RADAR IS
INDICATING A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN RETURNS. COULD BE MAINLY VIRGA
OR SOME SPRINKLES AT THIS POINT...WHICH FAIRLY CLOSELY MATCHES THE
HRRR AND IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG FGEN AND WAA.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN NW WI. ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO COASTAL LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE 40S AND 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...BRINGING
A BIT OF A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION. SOME
STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS NW WI.

ON THURSDAY...THE BIG STORY WILL BE STRONG WINDS. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THURSDAY...AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 700 MB. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF MINNESOTA WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PLENTY OF
MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CONUS AND A RIDGE OUT WEST...THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTRAL BY LATE WEEKEND. FINALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROUGH
OUT WEST WILL MOVE A BIT EAST BY MID WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ALONG
A PORTION OF THE SOUTH SHORE. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND MUCH
COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR A MIX WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIME IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN ALL THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

AT THIS TIME WE HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS AFTER 12Z. KDLH TO BE AFFECTED BY NORTHEAST FLOW AND IFR STRATUS
FLOWING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 14Z...WHEN SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH IT BACK
NORTHEAST.  TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AFTER 18Z SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF KDLH AND KHYR. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
BUT UNLIKELY AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TERMINAL FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.  A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH BEHIND SHOWERS GENERALLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  41  60  24 /  20  20  10  10
INL  65  40  53  19 /  10  10  30  20
BRD  70  38  57  24 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  66  43  61  26 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  64  44  63  28 /  40  50   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE






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