Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 231719
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1219 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT HAS KEPT THE AREA UNDER CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...ALLOWING A SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD IN AND CLEAR OFF OUR
SKIES.  SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND 40S MOST LOCATIONS.  OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS A SHORTWAVE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WING THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...BRINGING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  IT SHOULD DEVELOP AS SNOW...THEN SLOWLY
SWITCH TO RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF
AS FAR AS THEY WILL THIS MORNING...BUT STILL DROP BELOW FREEZING
EVERYWHERE.  CLOUDS TO KEEP FRIDAY TEMPERATURES DOWN AGAIN...BUT
SHOULD STILL RISE INTO THE 40S WHERE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND
TO AROUND 50 OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 210 FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH
MO.  THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASE FURTHER NORTH IN MN AND
WI. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASE TO 20-35 POPS AND THE PTYPE WILL
BE MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WITH SOME MIXTURE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 210.  AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ENDING ALL CHANCE FOR RAIN BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY.  THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO WILL ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA.  ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL KEEP THE AREA RAIN-FREE THROUGH THURSDAY.  HIGHS TEMPS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY AND INT HE 50S
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MARGINAL MVFR MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE FINAL 3-6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING... THEN LOWER OVERNIGHT AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. IF PCPN DEVELOPS EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED
A FEW SITES COULD SEE A BRIEF -RASN MIX AT THE START... BUT AT
THIS POINT JUST MENTIONED -RA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  26  43  31 /   0  10  50  40
INL  44  20  49  31 /   0   0  20  20
BRD  49  32  47  34 /   0  50  50  60
HYR  46  23  50  31 /   0  10  30  40
ASX  45  22  47  31 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...



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