Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 150558
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1258 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 522 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

UPDATED FOR HEADLINE INFORMATION AT THE BOTTOM...TO ADD FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS AND WRN MN WILL USHER IN A WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION.
WILL ALSO SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH MUCH STRONGER WINDS TO THE WEST OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE
SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH
ON WED.

EXPECT TO SEE HIGH LEVEL THIN CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH WED
MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD THICKNESS IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE DAY UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AROUND
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE WHERE A WEAK LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS NOTICEABLY
COOLER...IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

UPPER LEVEL/SFC RIDGING PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING SUPPORTING NO PCPN. MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY. GFS/NAM BRING IN QPF WHILE ECMWF DRIER AND GEM HAS NO QPF.
USED A MODEL BLEND WHICH GAVE SMALL POPS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
MAY CHANGE IN FUTURE RUNS AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY WHICH
IS KEEPING DRIER AIR FROM BEING OVERCOME BY MOISTURE. MAINTAINED THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF POPS ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE
DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL
TRYING TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT
WAVE REACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT PCPN
FREE AS DRIER AIR LOCKED IN WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME. MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR FRIDAY WITH THE GFS WET...ECMWF DRY
AND NAM/GEM IN BETWEEN. MAINTAINED THE BLENDED APPROACH WHICH
RESULTED IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS ALREADY IN THE
FORECAST. DIALED DOWN THE QPF WITH SUCH LARGE DISCREPANCIES. THESE
DIFFERENCES PERSIST AND CONTINUED WITH THE BLENDED APPROACH WITH
POPS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND IRON COUNTY WI AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES
AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND USED A CONSENSUS FOR POPS/QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
LAST SEVERAL RAP RUNS SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING EARLY
THIS MORNING IN MINNESOTA...SO ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO ALL
NE MINNESOTA TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN QUEBEC TODAY...WHILE A LOW MOVES
INTO NE MANITOBA. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS ALL TAF SITES BY 16Z TO 17Z. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH DAY TIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  62  42  64 /  10  10  10  20
INL  47  62  36  63 /  10  20   0  20
BRD  46  66  42  66 /  20  10   0  10
HYR  42  66  43  66 /  10  10   0  20
ASX  42  64  42  65 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.

WI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     WIZ001-002-006-007.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/WL





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