Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 241740
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1240 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING.  THE AREA OF RAIN EXTENDS BACK ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...IN A SOMEWHAT SCATTERED NATURE.  THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA.  THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY...THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  MAX
TEMPS TODAY TO ONLY RISE INTO THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE WITH ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW.  SATURDAY THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA THAT ALONG WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
THAT WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.  TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COOL...BUT NOT AS
COOL AS TODAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN
TO EMERGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM/DGEX KEEPS THE REGION DRY WITH
RIDGING NEARBY. THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MN WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH A
SFC LOW OVER WESTERN MN WITH A LARGER QPF SIGNAL. HAVE USED A
BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN POPS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. THE PTYPE WILL BE LIQUID WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WASHES OUT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF CRUISES BY
WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A DEEPER/STRONGER UPPER TROF
SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SFC
LOW THE ECMWF FEATURED MONDAY NIGHT HAS WASHED OUT...BUT WITH THE
TROF OVERHEAD...CONTINUES TO PUMP OUT RAIN. AS A COMPROMISE...WILL
HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY
NIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE
THE UPPER TROF DEPARTS. NEXT UPPER TROF CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD AS IT
DROPS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE A SMALL POP
OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AS A RESULT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
NEXT UPPER TROF TO AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND
FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS AT A FEW SITES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIP TODAY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY
VFR...BUT CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PRECIP GENERALLY TAPERS OFF THIS
EVENING BUT CEILINGS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR LEVELS...WITH IFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT HIB AND BRD. THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT DLH/HIB.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT 10KTS OR LESS...INCREASING MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  32  43  29 /  70  70  20   0
INL  49  32  52  27 /  50  50  10   0
BRD  46  36  51  30 /  60  60  20   0
HYR  48  34  51  27 /  70  70  20   0
ASX  46  33  43  28 /  60  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ146.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ141>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...JJM





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