Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 070213
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
913 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE LATEST TRENDS. UPDATED AVIATION
SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHEAST
SK/SOUTHWEST MB AREA INTO NORTHWEST KS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT...THEN INTO
MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
INTO FRIDAY. FEW ECHOES WERE OCCURRING AS OF 20Z OVER OUR
CWA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA
INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA WITH MORE SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE 1 TO 1.3 INCHES BY 12Z...AND REMAIN THAT HIGH
THROUGH THURSDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.2
INCHES AT INL AROUND 12Z...THAT PUTS THEM NEAR THE HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. A SOUTHERLY LLJ...WITH 850MB WINDS FROM 40 TO 50 KTS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NORTHLAND
AROUND 12Z...THEN CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO OUR EASTERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON THEN MOVING EAST
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE
LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. WE KEPT A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE BETTER FORCING AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFT EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWER THREAT...FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND LAST INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME FOG.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THERE COULD BE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHLAND
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE PASSED
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...PROVIDING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AND LIFT INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL BECOME A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY SUNDAY ONCE IT MEETS
ITS SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS STACKED LOW WILL
LIFT NE INTO THE IA/MN/WI REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODELS HAVE SOME NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW...BUT ARE STILL INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
NORTHLAND TO GET RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE SIMILAR LOW
TRACKS...FROM NW IOWA TO JUST NORTH OF GREEN BAY. THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. LEANED ON A BLEND OF THE THREE MODELS. THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCES OF
GETTING RAINFALL BECAUSE OF THE DRY NE FLOW FROM ONTARIO WHICH MAY
SHUNT THE SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE NORTHLAND DURING THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
THERE COULD ALSO BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO AT THIS TIME.
THE COOLER AIR ALOFT MEANS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SO AVOIDED
FORECASTING SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

MUCH OF NRN MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD MVFR-VFR CIGS THIS
EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND IFR-MVFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES TO LIFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
09Z...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY BEHIND THE BAND OF
SHOWERS...WITH SOME LOWERING OF CEILIGS TO MVFR AS WELL. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AROUND 1500 FEET TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING...TO CAUSE LLWS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 14Z. ANOTHER WAVE OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS AFTER
15Z THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING MORE MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND SPECIFIC LOCATION SO HAVE LEFT OUT
OF TERMINALS FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  70  47  58 /  60  80  80  20
INL  56  70  41  53 /  60  70  60  20
BRD  59  72  45  57 /  70  80  70  10
HYR  60  76  55  63 /  50  80  80  30
ASX  53  79  54  62 /  30  70  70  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ143>146.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...LE







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