Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 242356
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROF EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TOMORROW. AS SUCH..THE PRIMARY AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER..WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THIS EVENING..ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN FAR EASTERN MN/NORTHWEST
WI. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS..BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND QPF SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LESS
THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY.

AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS..EAST/NORTHEAST SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS..ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MANY OF
THESE SAME AREAS WILL ALSO SEE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FLOW OFF THE BIG LAKE PERSISTS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY THICK THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MOST AREAS..ALSO LIMITING TEMP RECOVERY ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER..SOME CLEARING/THINNING OF THE DEEP OVERCAST SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN AND ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD BY SAT
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN OVERALL DRY AND MILD PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN FROM THE NORTH AT LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IS MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A WEAK
LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THAT TROUGH FIZZLES OUT AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST RESULTING IN A
MAINLY DRY AND MILD PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. LOOKS LIKE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING TO ALLOW THE PRECIP TO MAKE IT
VERY FAR EAST. OTHERWISE DRY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES GENERALLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING
THE WORK WEEK. LAKE BREEZE ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER BY THE
LAKE...BUT OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUED OVER SOUTHWEST AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND NEAR
KBRD. A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW WAS PREVENTING THE LOWER CEILINGS
FURTHER EAST/NORTHEAST AND KEEPING ANY PRECIP TO VIRGA TO
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES AT MOST. SOME THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS
WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND WE TRENDED THAT WAY FOR
SEVERAL OF THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CEILINGS AROUND KDLH
IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE AS BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS KEEP A FEED OF
DRIER GOING. CEILINGS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE
BUILD SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  43  31  49 /  60  20   0   0
INL  32  53  30  58 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  36  52  30  58 /  50  20   0   0
HYR  34  53  29  56 /  70  20   0   0
ASX  33  44  29  48 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ146-
     147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ141>145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MELDE





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