Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 151138 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
638 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON LOW RH AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY...PROMOTING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF NE MINNESOTA...AND A PORTION
OF NW WISCONSIN. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR
MORE DETAILS.

THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN A WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE/SFC REFLECTION
LOW...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. LATEST NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH MIXING HTS AROUND 6000 FT
THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO
AROUND 70F. THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...WITH DEW PTS IN THE
TEENS...WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING TO THE SFC THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 15 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL
BE COMMON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL
PREVAIL FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE WESTERN TIP AND ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER ALONG THE LAKE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS
EVENING...TRACKING INTO FAR NORTHERN MINN THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT SCHC
POPS THURS ALONG THE BORDERLAND/IRON RANGE FOR A STRAY SHOWER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL QUEBEC THURSDAY
EVENING...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF/NAM
ARE NOT INDICATING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PCPN WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

A SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND MERGE WITH A WEAK LOW OVER ONTARIO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW
NORTH AND NE OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT GAVE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA SIMILAR TO THE NAM12/GEM. FRIDAY LOOKS WARM AND WINDY. GUSTY W
TO WNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASED THE
WINDS OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A HEAVY USE OF THE SREF/NAM
MODELS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE
NOW IN THE FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS AND DRY
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE FORECAST SHOWS SOME AREAS OF NE MINNESOTA
APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALBERTA TO NW ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN ALONG DURING THAT
PROCESS. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND
GRADUALLY DRAWING MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY SHOULD HELP GIVE THE
NORTHLAND A WARM AND SUNNY SATURDAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS TROUGH BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE NORTHLAND. THE
GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE INDICATING THE NORTHLAND HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO NEARLY
1 INCH OVER THE NORTHLAND. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER AT
MOVING THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH BOUNDARY AND PCPN THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO INCREASE MUCH HIGHER
ONCE THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS
RAIN.

THE LOW SHOULD BE IN NW ONTARIO BY EARLY MONDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
SHOWING ANOTHER LOW IN THE MIDWEST LIFTING AND MERGING WITH THE
ONTARIO LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE
MONDAY. THIS COULD CREATE AN EVEN LARGER AND DEEPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND WHICH COULD WOBBLE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR AND
ONTARIO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. IF THIS SCENARIO
HAPPENS...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST...THEN THE NORTHLAND COULD
SEE A COUPLE DAYS OF COOL NW FLOW...BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER...AND LOW
CHANCES OF RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  41  59  40 /   0  10  10   0
INL  70  45  59  34 /   0  20  20   0
BRD  69  44  66  39 /   0  20  10   0
HYR  67  40  65  41 /   0  10  10   0
ASX  69  40  66  40 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.

WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WIZ001-002-006>008.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






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