Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 061752 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1252 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION FORECASTS BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND AS OF 1450Z...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KINL
TO KHIB TO KHYR. AREA RADARS SHOW THE LLJ HAS WEAKENED THIS
MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED
TO REFORM. WE INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST HALF. MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

AT 345 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CWA. THE AREA OF SHOWERS STRETCHED FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA
INTO PRICE COUNTY. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING YET THIS MORNING
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE DEVELOP AS THERE IS
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WORKING ITS SAY IN FROM THE SOUTH. ALSO
FAIRLY DECENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL MN WITH 1.2
INCHES ACCORDING TO THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING RANGED FROM THE MID 30S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE RESOLVING VARIOUS
PRECIPITATION THREATS IN THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. WAA AND FGEN WILL LIKELY BRING THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. THINGS BECOME
A BIT MORE MUDDLED AFTER THAT...AS WE TEND TO LOSE SOME OF THE
SUPPORT FOR A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. HAVE PULLED BACK A BIT ON PCPN TODAY AS WE WILL LIKELY
NEED TO WAIT FOR THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO MOVE IN TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. FOR THE MOST PART...BASED ON UPPER LEVEL FORCING
MECHANISMS AND HIGH RESOLUTION SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY...IT LOOKS
LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED TODAY. THESE SOUTHWEST
FLOW SITUATIONS ARE OFTEN FAIRLY TRICKY TO RESOLVE...BUT AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY AS WELL BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OVERALL...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH 40S AND 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT IN THE 50S INLAND.
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S DUE TO A
CONTINUED PUSH OF WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND NEARLY CO-LOCATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THUR NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD REALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN FROM THE W/NW. A SECONDARY INVERTED
SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE MO RIVER VALLEY INTO WI AND THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
BRUSHING PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL WI FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE
ARE FAIRLY DRAMATIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT WITH THIS
SECONDARY SYSTEM...WITH THE GEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
QPF OVER WI. THE GFS AND NAM ARE THE DRIEST...WITH THE ECMWF IN THE
MIDDLE BUT ON THE DRY SIDE. SO...LEFT SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR
ERN COUNTIES IN NRN WI. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL DROP IN
ACROSS SRN MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW ON SUNDAY AND ITS
NWD PROGRESSION WILL HINGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR MASS TO THE NORTH. THE LATEST ECMWF IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE LOW SUN INTO MON...BUT
THE GFS AND GEM BOTH KEEP THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. AT THIS TIME...WILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHER
POPS ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES...AND LIMIT THE NWD EXTENT OF HIGH POPS
AND QPF.

THE OTHER FEATURE THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEK IS THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY ROBUST LAKE BREEZE. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...A STRONG NE FLOW ACROSS WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL FORM AND BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
LOW FORMS AND STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH. WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
RELIEF FROM THIS COLD WIND OFF THE LAKE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE INCLUDING THE TWIN PORTS. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S CLOSE TO THE LAKE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD IFR/MVFR BKN/OVC CIGS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DELAYED THE TIMING WITH WHICH THESE LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BACK TO VFR TO THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST TERMINALS. THINK THE THREAT FROM THE MORNING
SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER...A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS AROUND 1500 FEET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE
CONFIDENCE OF STORMS AFFECTING ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS LOW...SO
LEFT -TSRA OUT OF THE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT LLWS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

LOWERED THE CIGS TO IFR/MVFR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY GET SOCKED IN
BY LOW CLOUD COVER...DRIZZLE/SHOWERS...AND LOWER VISIBILITY. THE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THURSDAY MORNING OR
EVEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  52  71  48 /  40  40  70  80
INL  71  58  70  38 /  50  60  70  60
BRD  73  61  72  43 /  70  70  70  70
HYR  74  61  77  54 /  50  40  70  70
ASX  67  55  80  51 /  50  30  70  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ143>146.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/WL






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