Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 052344
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

SLOWED DOWN THE HIGHER POPS UNTIL MORE AFTER 12Z...AND EVEN THAT
MAY NOT BE SLOW ENOUGH. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RAP/HRRR THERE
WILL BE AN INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS (NOW ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA) THAT
MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES
AS IT MOVES INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
LIKELY OCCUR/MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
STRONGER 850MB JET. THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AFTER 15Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA...AND EVEN LATER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA. IF THESE MODEL TRENDS HOLD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL CONSIDER UPDATING POPS FURTHER WITH THE 9PM-10PM
UPDATE. IT IS GOING TO RAIN...BUT THIS RAIN MAY BE DELAYED A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE RAIN MOVING IN LATE
TONIGHT AND HOLDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THU NIGHT. AS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...STILL REMAINING MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.
ACTUALLY SEEING A 40F DEW POINT VALUE NOW AT ELBOW LAKE...SO THE
MOISTURE IS SLOWLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD. WILL SEE THE CLOUDS
EXPANDING SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS WELL WITH THE SLOWLY RISING
DEW POINTS. SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THESE
REASONS. THE GUSTY S-SE WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF A BIT OVERNIGHT SO
THE DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS SHOULD ABATE BY EARLY EVENING. THE
NEXT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
UP TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT WITH STEADY SOUTH WINDS. HOW FAST ANY
PCPN ACTUALLY MAKES IT INTO THE FA WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION.
MODELS REALLY DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF FORCING TONIGHT AND THEREFORE
WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH PCPN ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND UNTIL
CLOSER TO WED MORNING. WILL LEAVE LOW PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 TO BLEND WITH ADJACENT OFFICES. SEE A MUCH BETTER
PUSH OF 850MB WINDS ON WED HELPING TO CONTINUE THE MOISTURE SURGE.
NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. SFC LOW TRACKS UP TOWARD KABR BY 12Z
THU WITH MODELS INDICATING SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT TO THE SW. STILL
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA SO WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

SFC BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ON THU AS WELL
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP BEHIND IT. MODELS DISAGREE
ON HOW FAST THE PCPN WILL END WITH THE 12Z NAM LINGERING HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OF PCPN THE LONGEST. THEREFORE ITS STORM TOTAL PCPN IS
MUCH HEAVIER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW HALF INCH
TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS WITH A LITTLE MORE OR LESS IN SOME AREAS.
AFTER THE PCPN ENDS THU NIGHT IT LOOKS NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR FRI.

FOR FRI NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
NEXT UPPER LOW MODELS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE FA LATER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES OF COURSE HOWEVER LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR RESPECTABLE RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDENT ON SURFACE LOW TRACK. DRY
AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS INITIALLY IN PERIOD WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING LATER SUNDAY AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST. WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE AT
THIS POINT. MINIMAL T POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE BLO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL REMAIN VFR. MVFR (POSSIBLY IFR) CIGS
WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING. -RA
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE WED MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...RIDDLE





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