Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 232354
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
654 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHO WILL GET MEASURABLE RAIN.
THERE IS A BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS MOVING INTO EASTERN ND...AND
THIS ACTIVITY IS DRYING UP AS IT ENTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. WE WILL REMOVE MOST POPS
THROUGH 6Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT ON
THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING 40-45KT LLJ INTO NE SD. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHOULD OCCUR AND PWATS ARE PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND
0.90 IN THE SOUTH BY LATE TONIGHT. SHOWALTERS EVEN GET SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE IN NORTHEAST SD...BUT WILL KEEP THE PRECIP JUST SHOWERS
AND NOT MENTION THUNDER JUST YET. THERE SHOULD BE DEEPER LAYERED
SATURATION SO WILL KEEP THE POPS LATER TONIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. MOST OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS NEAR KBJI
INDICATE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW MIXING IN SO WILL MAINTAIN A MIX
HERE LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS
ALREADY BEEN HEADING TOWARDS WESTERN ND...WITH SOME DECENT RADAR
RETURNS OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN
REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS RADAR WOULD
INDICATE. DEW POINTS OVER THE CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE THE PRECIP DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
EAST...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR. THINK THE
BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS A MORE
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WY AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER WESTERN SD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SEVERAL TENTHS OF QPF TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER END
FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY ABOVE ZERO AS THE
COLUMN SATURATES...BUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TOMORROW...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS...AND
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SPREADING NORTH AND EAST AS THE BEST MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST...BUT THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH PEAKS OF SUN TO GET ABOVE 50 IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT KEPT SOME LOWER POPS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN
OUR SOUTHEAST TO COORDINATE WITH NEIGHBORS. CLOUDS AND INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY...BUT
GIVE WAY AS THE NEXT SPLIT TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS BY LATE SUNDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
SATURDAY WILL BRING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH DRIER AIR INTO
THE CWA AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 50S WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL BE EVEN WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS STARTS SOME WARMER AIR MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH.
THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING SOME PRECIP INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT THE OTHER MODELS
ARE A BIT SLOWER. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
BUT THINK THE MAIN PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
THAT WAS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE US AND CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS
PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS WERE TRENDING FASTER THEN SLOWER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. SO WILL
PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

KEPT POPS FROM PREVIOUS RUN FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE PRECIP FOR MON AND TUE
AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR MON TUE AND WED.
HIGH TEMPS DECREASED TWO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THU FROM THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS SATURATION OCCURS WITH STRONG MID
LEVEL WAA. E/SE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND GUST OVER 20KT LATER
TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. HAVE MENTIONED A SHOWER NEAR FARGO...AND
KEPT ALL OTHER AREAS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS SHOULD LOWER
INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR KFAR/KBJI...AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER AREAS. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...SO CIGS COULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK





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